clskinsfan

BWI: 29.5 DCA: 21.5 IAD:34.5 RIC:15.5 Tiebreaker SBY: 11.5 MBY KOKV: 44.5 I am really feeling good about this winter. Storms have been wanting to ride the coast all fall. We are gonna have our chances. And if we are gonna get a big storm this is the year IMO. Clearly the background state Below 40n has changed a lot the past decade. And it may be we need bombs to get snowstorms in the future. This year mother nature is going to be dropping bombs.

Those January analogs you used are straight up weenine heaven. I am with you. I am going big this year for just about everyone as well. Delmarva could be more rainy than they have been lately with storms hugging the coast. Excellent write up. Thanks for sharing.

First flakes tomorrow night? Would be a little early.

This right here. We are gonna have our chances this winter.

Whoever usually starts the annual snowfall thread should probably get it started. We normally see our first flakes out this way by mid November. And there are some signs of possible flurries on Halloween night.

First clown map of the year.

This right here. If you go climo or under you will bust hard with one storm. Makes our area brutal to forecast. Bit also makes it special to live here. One storm changes everything. And when we get that one storm. We get obliterated. Especially out here. I would bet we get at least one bomb this year. I would bet a TON on it.

Yeah. 18-28 is pretty meh here in all honesty. That would be one big storm.

Not that it matters but I agree with DT as well. Especially with the overall pattern so far this fall. I probably sound like a broken record but storms want to climb the coast so far this fall. Temps are my only concern in all honesty. And that concern stems from having decent blocking events over the past couple of winters but no cold air making it down to us. But I would bet a ton on above normal precip for all of us this winter.

The best:

Yep. Temps will probably always be a worry going forward. But you need storms at least to have a chance. I think we will have storms this year. Plenty of them.

Storms continue to want to climb the coast this fall. I mentioned it a month ago in another thread. Everything has wanted to come up the coast for the past 2 months. We are going to have chances this winter. No guarantee any of this winters storms will be snowstorms. But I am going big for my winter forecast this year. At least for my area way west.

Waiting for some friends to fly into Dulles. Or I would have already been down there.

Nah. I am going early on purpose to see it. I wasnt gonna leave until noon. But I moved up my plans.

Ophelia is looking much better right now. LP is under the heaviest convection. Still some time for her to strengthen as well.

Looks like that is happening as we speak.

Agreed. Has some time to strengthen some. And she is looking much more robust now.

Heading to Norfolk at 6AM tomorrow morning. Should be there by 10 or so. I cruise out of Norfolk to Bermuda on Sunday. Probably gonna be a bumpy on the way out. Looking forward to it.

I am on a cruise out of Norfolk next weekend. So I have been looking at the Northern Hemisphere maps for weeks. And yes I am a weenie as you all know. But after watching it for weeks one thing looks clear to me. We will have bombs running up the coast this year. Doesnt mean DC (the city) has a good winter. But we are all going to have chances this winter. I would bet my lifes savings on it. And once again, I am a weenie. But just go back and look at the flow over the past month. Stuff is going to want to come up the coast all winter long....Whatever just drunk posting.

It has rained 6 times since May 1st at my house. Think about that.

I am praying the GFS is out to lunch. I am cruising out of Norfolk on the 24th to Bermuda. If it turns out right my vacation is over.

I would actually bet a ton that we end up above normal this year. With the base state we live in Nino's are probably our best shot. Bombs are probably the best way to score going forward. And we all know that nino's give us bombs. Could be wrong. Wouldnt be the first time. But that is where I am at right now. And if we cant score in a nino than we are probably done for good. Because the base state here is a clown show.

Pulley ridge Buoy, about 60 miles from the center has around 20 wave heights and 86 degree water temps. No wind measurements on that buoy. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42097

The main thread is annoying. I will stay here and post with my sub friends. The western part of the storm seems to be firing up right now. I dont think the hunters flew through the western eye wall. But shw is clearly trying to get her act together. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined