clskinsfan

I dont think so. They may be rarer. But warmer water is going to cause some wound up beasts in the future. Hell it might even happen in March. I basically think winter is over. And the pattern isnt looking good for it. But you never know when you can get a phased up bomb with just enough cold air to make it work. The major change I am seeing lately is that the 4-6 inch storms we do get are gone within 48 hours. We just cannot sustain temps below freezing anymore.

I am at 19.4 inches off of 8 snow events. A bad Nino. And this will be the first Nino I can remember not hitting climo if we are done. 2023-2024 Season Total: 19.4 (67% of climo) 11/28 T First flakes of the season from a streamer. Temps around freezing 25 MPH winds. 12/10/23 .75 Wave rides a front. 58 going in. slushy 3/4 inch on the back. 1/1/24 T Little wave rolls through with afternoon show showers. 1/6/24 2.3 Storm tracks through Southern VA. Mixed bag drops over 2 inches. 1/9/24 1.5 Thump from a strong MW blizzard. Roads a disaster. 1/14/23 .3 Squall comes with heavy rates and wind. 1/15/23 3.25 Boundary sets up to the south. Light rates for 20 hours. 1/19/24 5.6 Overnight rates good. Light snow all day. Mod with streamers in the evening. 2/13/24 2.9 Perfect track Mostly rain. Ends as a pummeling of mashed potatoes. 2/16/23 2.7 Northern vorst disappoints. Forecast was 4-6. Got less than 3.

This is the truth. And the fact our species is accelerating it during the upswing in an interglacial cant be disputed either imo. The planet warms and cools. And has since its formation. But what is the impact of accelerating 150000 years of warming into a single generation? Nobody knows. But we are about to find out.

We have temp issues with prefect track February storms now. So yeah. I am with you.

Without blocking we are done in March. Maybe something transient comes along. But generally I think winter is probably over. Couldnt even get to climo in a Nino with a few perfectly tracked storms. Times they are a changing folks.

Spent the day doing some housework for my ailing father in law in Herndon today. Left early this morning with just under 3 inches on the ground at home. Snow cover was nice all the way up to and over the Blue Ridge. It progressed down from there. Herndon had around an inch and half when I got there. And it was gone a couple of hours later. Still snow covered in the shade back out here NW of Winchester. Was a beautiful drive this morning though coming over the mountain. Trees were plastered from the bottom to the top.

Best frontogenesis is in the favored spots. Hope it tick south just a touch.

Coming down nicely now. Beautiful Jebwalk just now. Love the sound of snow bouncing off of my coat.

First flakes NW of Winchester. Good luck everyone.

40/14. She is lining us up ya'll.

First virga showing up to my west. 9PM start time must be to late.

Radar looks amazing down in KY. Some 50 DBZ returns down there. Somebody is gonna get pummeled.

COD Nexrad is down for server maintenance. I am going to have withdrawals without it for a snowstorm. Cloudy 43/14 NW of Winchester

NAM starts around 9 PM out here. Hits hard for a few hours.

Thats 10:1

UKIE looks pretty good.

Radar is looking tasty though

I am surprised they went 4-8 for the storm warning for my area. Bullish call imo.

GFS is game on.

ICON actually dried up some. Came into line with everything else. Doesnt matter. It gonna fucking snow yall.

No way anyone is panicking about the HRRR. And even still it has a 2-5 storm for everyone.

0Z HRRR slightly drier. But it will be different every run for the next 18 hours.

Nah. I think you will do better than that. My Final call: 3-5 for everyone in this subforum with 8 inch jacks in elevated areas. Maybe double digits up around Deep Creek.