clskinsfan

Had my first dusting of the year today. Off and on snow showers/flurries for most of the day. And coming down pretty well right now. Light snow 27 degrees.

BWI: 27.5 DCA:18.5 IAD:30.5 RIC:16.0 SBY: 13.5 OKV: 35.5

Happened out this way with Sandy. Mountains just to my SW got over 6 inches from it. High Res Euro is interesting for the 81 corridor next Friday. Just enough cold air left to get a little snow in the area before the flip to rain. Something to watch at least.

First flakes of the season out in the Winchester area today. Kind of nice to have you guys to the east get some at the same time.

Agreed. I am still thinking it is a Nov climo "event". Strong cold front with 15 minutes of snow. That is just normal for this time of year for our area.

I would think it ends up the way we usually get our first flakes out here and that is with the frontal passage itself. Still time to work out the timing details on the waves though.

Love seeing the Aleutian low showing up on guidance. Winter is on.

Long range MJO forecasts all look pretty good still. With almost all of them running through 7-8-1 in the heart of winter.

Which is a pretty normal time frame for those of us to the north and west. Usually from a frontal passage. The difference here is the follow up storm has a chance to be legit for a lot of us.

I have been checking on the long range Aussie MJO forecasts the past couple of weeks. According to that 7-8-1 may be the norm this winter with some time in COD during relaxation periods. I dont think the long range MJO forecast is very accurate. But I could live with a pattern like that.

Driving to Chicago tomorrow night. Will be interesting to see if there is any color up north. We had no leaf season out here this year. The driest September I can remember in my lifetime. Had some off and on drizzle today. That is all the rain I have seen in over 3 weeks.

I actually thought Bastardi's write up was one of his better ones. The one thing I have learned over the past few winters is that even though we think we are getting better at long term winter forecasting we arent. Some of the signs of a chance for a decent winter are there. But they were there two years ago as well. And that winter was abysmal. Last year was a good year out here. I am thinking it will be even better this year. If nothing else the MJO should be better this year. The long range forecasting has it staying pretty favorable into late winter.

The line matters a ton too. When we were younger we did Carnival, Royal and NCL a lot. Whichever was cheaper. And yes. Some of those cruises were shit shows. We have since moved on to Celebrity and it is just much more laid back. Anyway. Dont want to hijack the thread.

I must be pretty low than. Because I love cruising. And it is still the best value in a vacation you can get.

Sorry. Didnt see where you are. That picture reminds me a little bit of the Canadian Yukon with smaller mountains. I was there in May and it was simply stunning.

Yep. Beautiful outside though. Snow pack should stick around for most of the week too. I was actually surprised how bad the back roads are. Solid ice. All of them.

Yeah I saw that. Horrifying in all honesty.

It is wild that the cutoff was just west of the Blue Ridge. You guys usually do well with your elevation.

Plows coming through the neighborhood now. My son is gonna be pissed when he finds out he is going to school tomorrow

Just about done here. 3.1 for the event. Loved every minute of this one.

Just took my dog for what will probably be my last Jebwalk of the winter. It continues to dump here. I dont know if I ever remember a storm where we lost the mid levels and had them come back and stay snow for multiple hours afterwards. Really a nice end to the winter. I am pushing 3 inches at this point for sure. I will get a final measurement once the snow ends. Fun event though.

Haha! They are empty. That is a summer gig anyways. Got a fireplace for my winter pyro fix.

7:00 Update. 1.8 inches. Heavy snow 31 degrees. The past hour has been incredible. Roads are a mess. Along with everything else. Pummeled. Just no other word to describe it.

Holy beatdown! Pummeled!

Yep. I was wrong....It happens