clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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Hi res Euro looks pretty different from the NAM for west of DC. Around an inch and half for the majority of the area to the west. Edit: I meant to say different. I am out of practice when it comes to posting on the site due to the lack of snow.
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0Z GFS with the DC jack.
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We have a chance. Especially out this way. It depends how much cold air can make it in here on Monday night. But I think we will at least see flakes falling. Which is a win this winter so far.
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Hi Res Euro last night had a pity half inch for those of us west of the Catoctins. At this point I just want to see a flake fall. 12Z GFS has about the same for out my way. Has a nice little 1.6 inch jack for the Frederick, MD area.
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Not just the EPO region but that Scandinavian ridge might be what ends up saving the Atlantic as well. Get it to press the PV a little south and it could be game on.
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Agreed. No SE ridge in sight. Also heading into prime climo means things can pop up in the shorter range and surprise us. After all of these years of doing this I am still convinced that the models are still pretty much useless outside of 5 or 6 days lead time.
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Nobody talked about the 12Z hi res Euro. But it has some front end flakes with the big cutter next weekend. Something to watch I guess.
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First and only. Thank god. I hated school
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The 87 winter was historic for the extreme cold into the UK and western Europe. Especially January. I am not really seeing that in the modelling. Does anyone know how those analogs are chosen? Is it computer based? I should edit this by saying it was a crushjob for our entire subforum as well. I can remember bumper sliding for weeks on end in January here. The roads were solid ice for a month. That was my senior year of high school
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We did.
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Just looking at the long range the STJ appears to be really active heading into January. There are a line of LP's looking to be on the playing field. Obviously that is not everything we need to get hit in our area. But at least it gives us chance. We have had our share of Atlantic blocking so far this fall. If we can keep that I would be shocked if one of those storms doesnt work out for us heading into our prime climo.
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Just a little under an inch and half NW of Winchester. Freezing drizzle coming down now. There a some heavier returns to the west. Am curious to see if they come as some kind of frozen precip. Beautiful winter day out this way though.
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Yep. It is weird how that happens. And then sometimes you get flurries for 10 minutes and the sky just opens up. Hope it starts sooner than later. I am ready for my first Jebwalk of the year.
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12K NAM is interesting. Showing a pretty decent ice event for NW of the cities tomorrow evening. Would be cool to get some crust on top of the snow before the rain hits.
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Got some virga on my doorstep out this way on Nexrad. Would love for this to start as early as possible. Get as much snow as possible before the flip.
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35/25 here NW if Winchester. Temps are not going to be an issue out this way. Precip looks to be moving pretty quickly on radar as well. Maybe into this area before midnight.
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12Z GFS moves the max stripe a little north this run. Has more frozen for everyone as well. Looking good for an inch or two in the favored spots (Winchester to Carroll).
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6Z GFS is a weenie run for the Shenandoah Valley and WV. The Ski resorts are loving what they are seeing for pretty much the entire run.
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GFS is still loving Mappy land. Snow at 30 degrees works. We get skunked out here.
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The NAO is really important for our monster storms though. In order to score the big ones we need either the 50/50 or a displaced PV under it acting like a 50/50. That is when we get really crushed.
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Hi Res GFS likes the WAA for NW of town. A couple inches of slop.
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Not over for us yet. We can score some with the WAA before it shuts off. It really depends on that HP over the top for us. It is rotting rapidly on most of the models Goes from 1038 to 1026 on the high res Euro. Keep it pumping in the cold air a little longer and we could see a couple of inches.
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Just a little bit stronger HP over the top next weekend and the WAA could be decent at least. I agree with the rest that the ULL is probably a pipe dream. But we might be able to steal a couple of inches up front.
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Long range MJO forecast is still really favoring 8-1-2 for the heart of the winter. A lot of the long range stuff is looking pretty favorable IMO. At least I dont think we will be seeing wall to wall torch this winter. And the storm chances should be there.
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Was out walking around all day today in the Harrisonburg area. Mid 30's all day. I was quite comfortable in all honesty. Kind of surprised how quickly my body adjusted to the cold temps.
