clskinsfan

No way we know where that low will end up cutting too yet. We have a gulf low with HP over the top at 78 on the euro. It very well may end up an Apps runner. But we dont know yet.

The look on the Euro at 90 is pretty nice. Juicy lp on the gulf coast and hp over the top. What happens from there we dont know yet. But I will take that my chances with that look in January.

Hi res Euro is a Winchester beatdown:

Wife was out here in the Winchester area running errands. She says the roads are really icy. 28 degrees with freezing rain.

I am actually liking the chances for next weekend. The gfs has started to move toward a workable solution. on a side note I broke my left arm yesterday so excuse the crappy typing over the next few weeks. I bet my typing will still be better than DT's

Had a nice little snow shower here. Hope it makes it to you all in the east.

Hi res Euro has an inch in the usual spots with a little ice on top. It then dry slots us. It also has that same thin band of snow that the NAM has through NOVA and DC on Saturday morning. I still think it is under doing the CAD. As it does take the Shenandoah Valley above freezing for around 12 hours before the bottom drops out again. We are then below freezing until Wednesday afternoon. So plenty of time for my half inch glacier to form. Here is the 10-1 map from the run.

Yeah. It is actually somewhat interesting out here in the Winchester area. Still time for improvement as well.

The 18Z GFS is about the biggest weenie run I have seen in 3 years.

Hi Res Euro is a mix of the GFS and regular EURO. People in northern Md should love it. Verbatim it is a nasty ice storm for the 81 corridor.

That is a pretty nice cold blast after the storm passes as well. Single digits west of town. It would turn whatever falls into concrete.

Hi Res Euro is still a snow to ice to dryslot event. Not as good as 0Z but not a total disaster either.

Cobb data from the 12Z GFS run. Huge drop in surface temps from previous runs: DCA 200118/1100Z 119 16006KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14007KT 27.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.216 2:1| 0.6|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.28 11| 89| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.5F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 0.229 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.50 13| 87| 0 200118/2100Z 129 17012KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 IAD 200118/1000Z 118 15007KT 27.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14008KT 26.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 15009KT 26.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16013KT 27.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.152 7:1| 0.6|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.24 0| 96| 4 200118/1800Z 126 18012KT 30.3F SNPL 2:1| 0.4|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.204 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.44 34| 66| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19012KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0|100 BWI 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.3F SNOW 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.0F SNPL 7:1| 2.6|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.374 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.57 85| 15| 0 200118/2100Z 129 18011KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.327 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.90 0| 0|100 MRB 200118/0900Z 117 15009KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1000Z 118 15011KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14011KT 24.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14012KT 24.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16015KT 26.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.171 10:1| 2.1|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.37 3| 97| 0 200118/1800Z 126 17012KT 27.9F SNPL 6:1| 1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.233 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.60 53| 47| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19010KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.62 0| 0|100

PSU touched on it up above. It is REALLY close to big hit here. Definitely worth watching for sure.

We dont really even want it to transfer out here. We would just dry slot sooner. Obviously it could be better for you guys to the east. Especially the Eastern Shore. But for those of us to NW we want exactly what we see now.

GFS even keeps the surface below freezing in DC this run. All frozen event from DC north and west. Would be a sleet bomb after a couple of inches I think as depicted.

No one touched on the Hi Res Euro from last night. But it is an all frozen event out here in the 81 corridor. Snow to ice to dry slot. That is encouraging to see and really matches climo for these type of storms. Edit: And the 12z GFS matches it almost exactly. Decent thump for everyone on this run.

That was my biggest concern in the long range with all of that blocking on the models. Obviously way too far out there to blow a gasket yet. But something to watch for sure.

Sorry wrong thread.

It is on Pivotal.

Last nights Hi Res Euro had some ice with next weekends storm. That threat isnt over yet. The long range guidance all still looks really good. I dont get the negativity of a few in this thread. The Euro nailed this warm up a couple of weeks ago. There is no reason to think it is wrong about the decent pattern two weeks from now.

Happy BDay! Love Lansdowne. They have some incredible rooms with great views of the river.

The NavGem might have put up a better fight?

Both games today were dominated by the defensive lines. A great DL and running game wins in the playoffs. Feel a little bad for you Ravens fans.....Just a little.

Not trying to be a deb downer. But that is a lot of blocking being modeled over the top. Anyone else worried about storms being squashed IF that verifies.