clskinsfan

This is a good state of mind to have. And I think it is a realistic possibility. The thing is people forget just how much snow 8 inches really is. It has been too long for an area wide 6+ snow.

Cobb data is out for 18Z GFS. I wont post it. It is ugly for east of 81. We toss this run.

THIS IS TOTAL CRAP. Handled with all of the aplomb DT is known for.

If this was happening in February it would definitely be a 1-2 punch IMO. Not prime snow time for us. This actually reminds me of 2009. And if we can end up with half of that winter I will be joyous.

Not trying to be a jerk but no shit brother. We all know our Climo. We are just trying to find a way for all of us to score.

Yeah. If I get 4 inches out of the first wave I will leave this board. Which will make many happy I am sure

One thing I noticed on the 18Z runs is the storm has slowed down. That gives the HP time to move to the northeast. Which brings the upper level winds in from the due south. That sucks for all of us. Yes. My area/81 gets blitzed regardless. But if that trend continues we all flip.

Yeah. that EPS mean would be rain even out here. Hopefully its just a blip.

Your gonna get hammered. You have very little to worry about.

Basically 8 hours of deform love for the 81 corridor. I am salivating. And during daylight hours too. Gonna be so much fun. I need to hit the liquor store man. Need some scotch.

Yep. And at 96 the 850 winds are coming in from the south because of it. We'll see what happens.

At 72 cold air is dumping down the Apps out of the due north. Nice CAD at 96. 850 line down to NC/VA border.

Buffkit Time. Obviously just for fun this far out. I will post them as we get closer to the storm. 12Z GFS: DCA: 201216/1300Z 97 07008KT 30.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 07008KT 29.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 07007KT 29.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 14:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 07008KT 30.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 06008KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 12:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 06008KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 06009KT 32.1F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.161 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 84| 0| 16 201216/2000Z 104 05009KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 72| 0| 28 201216/2100Z 105 05011KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79 61| 0| 39 201216/2200Z 106 05010KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88 60| 0| 40 201216/2300Z 107 03008KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03 57| 0| 43 201217/0000Z 108 01008KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12 60| 0| 40 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 02011KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20 0| 0|100 201217/0200Z 110 01010KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048 12:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 1.25 0| 0|100 201217/0300Z 111 34009KT 31.7F SNPL 1:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.038 11:1| 4.7|| 0.06|| 0.05|| 1.29 22| 78| 0 201217/0400Z 112 36011KT 31.4F SNPL 3:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.026 11:1| 4.8|| 0.08|| 0.05|| 1.32 52| 48| 0 201217/0500Z 113 35010KT 30.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 10:1| 5.0|| 0.08|| 0.05|| 1.35 100| 0| 0 201217/0600Z 114 35010KT 29.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.027 10:1| 5.0|| 0.08|| 0.08|| 1.38 0| 0|100 BWI: 201216/1300Z 97 07009KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 07008KT 31.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 07009KT 29.7F SNOW 17:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 07010KT 30.5F SNOW 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 07011KT 31.4F SNOW 20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 17:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 06010KT 31.7F SNOW 16:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 16:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 07011KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0 201216/2000Z 104 06011KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 81| 0| 19 201216/2100Z 105 06013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.121 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 84| 0| 16 201216/2200Z 106 03012KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 74| 0| 26 201216/2300Z 107 04009KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.187 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 81| 0| 19 201217/0000Z 108 04011KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147 16:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 84| 0| 16 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 02012KT 31.5F SNOW 16:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 16:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.21 100| 0| 0 201217/0200Z 110 02014KT 31.0F SNPL 2:1| 0.2|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.103 14:1| 8.9|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 1.31 15| 85| 0 201217/0300Z 111 03014KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.113 14:1| 8.9|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.43 0| 0|100 201217/0400Z 112 35010KT 29.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 13:1| 9.2|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.49 100| 0| 0 201217/0500Z 113 01012KT 28.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 13:1| 9.6|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.52 100| 0| 0 201217/0600Z 114 36011KT 29.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 12:1| 10.0|| 0.17|| 0.12|| 1.59 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0700Z 115 36010KT 28.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.024 12:1| 10.0|| 0.17|| 0.14|| 1.61 0| 0|100 IAD: 201216/1200Z 96 07005KT 30.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1300Z 97 07005KT 29.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 06005KT 27.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 06005KT 27.8F SNOW 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096 14:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 05007KT 28.8F SNOW 14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105 14:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 05007KT 29.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 13:1| 4.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 03008KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 11:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 03008KT 31.5F SNOW 18:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 13:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 201216/2000Z 104 03007KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 14:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0 201216/2100Z 105 03009KT 32.1F SNOW 15:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.179 14:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 100| 0| 0 201216/2200Z 106 01008KT 31.9F SNOW 17:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.125 14:1| 15.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0 201216/2300Z 107 01009KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109 13:1| 16.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22 100| 0| 0 201217/0000Z 108 02010KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 13:1| 17.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 36010KT 31.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 13:1| 17.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37 100| 0| 0 201217/0200Z 110 36010KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 13:1| 18.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.40 100| 0| 0 201217/0300Z 111 35011KT 29.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 13:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.43 100| 0| 0 201217/0400Z 112 34012KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 13:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.46 100| 0| 0 201217/0500Z 113 34012KT 27.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 13:1| 19.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.49 100| 0| 0 MRB: 201216/1200Z 96 08006KT 25.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1300Z 97 07006KT 22.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 201216/1400Z 98 09004KT 23.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 201216/1500Z 99 VRB02KT 24.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 201216/1600Z 100 04004KT 24.3F SNOW 19:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147 16:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 201216/1700Z 101 03004KT 24.9F SNOW 19:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 17:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 201216/1800Z 102 02004KT 25.4F SNOW 18:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 17:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201216/1900Z 103 01007KT 25.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 16:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 201216/2000Z 104 01007KT 26.7F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 16:1| 12.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 100| 0| 0 201216/2100Z 105 01008KT 27.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 15:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 100| 0| 0 201216/2200Z 106 01008KT 27.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 15:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0 201216/2300Z 107 01008KT 26.9F SNOW 14:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 15:1| 16.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0 201217/0000Z 108 36009KT 26.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 15:1| 17.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201217/0100Z 109 01011KT 26.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 14:1| 18.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26 100| 0| 0 201217/0200Z 110 01009KT 26.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 14:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31 100| 0| 0 201217/0300Z 111 36008KT 26.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 14:1| 19.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.35 100| 0| 0 201217/0400Z 112 33006KT 26.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 14:1| 19.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.36 100| 0| 0

12Z GFS Buffkit for MRB 201214/0800Z 44 03003KT 40.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 201214/0900Z 45 01006KT 40.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0|100 201214/1000Z 46 02007KT 40.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100 201214/1100Z 47 06003KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 0| 0|100 201214/1200Z 48 04005KT 39.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201214/1300Z 49 03006KT 38.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 0| 0|100 201214/1400Z 50 01006KT 37.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.211 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 0| 0|100 201214/1500Z 51 35005KT 34.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79 14| 0| 86 201214/1600Z 52 36005KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 33| 0| 67 201214/1700Z 53 30004KT 35.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 27| 0| 73 201214/1800Z 54 32006KT 35.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 9| 0| 91 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201214/1900Z 55 31009KT 38.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 0| 0|100

12 NAM Buffkit for MRB. 201214/1000Z 46 06006KT 38.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 201214/1100Z 47 09005KT 37.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 201214/1200Z 48 07005KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 201214/1300Z 49 03004KT 36.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.201 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 0| 0|100 201214/1400Z 50 36003KT 36.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 13| 0| 87 201214/1500Z 51 33003KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 88| 0| 12 201214/1600Z 52 31003KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 88| 0| 12 201214/1700Z 53 VRB02KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.07 75| 0| 25 201214/1800Z 54 33003KT 34.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 61| 0| 39

12Z RGEM is warm. But it has really struggled over the past couple of years.

Ukie been on an island for two days now. Either it is going to score a coup or it will fold to the rest of the models tonight.

Brother this is the Mid Atlantic. The only weather thing we do well is fails.

GFS is toasty. 850's are cooking until the rates really get going. White rain most likely? Although it is good to see such a nice vort for our future 50/50

I was looking at sea surface maps the other day and the mid Atlantic was near normal.

Sometimes Deep Creek is too far west to get in the deform. But you will make up for that with higher ratios. Really loving the Front Royal to Hagerstown area for this one. And not because I live in Winchester. It just appears that is where the deform is going to be on all of the models. 81 is going to be a disaster.

Thats 10-1 ratios on that map. I wonder if the deform snow wouldn't be higher ratios than that as well? Either way that is a historic December storm for the Shenandoah Valley. Crazy actually.

Trixie bullseye. Euro likes the 81 corridor again.

Looks a lot like 12z.

Seeing snow in western NC is a good sign. About to get wrecked i think.