clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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The CMC is much colder overall throughout the run than the GFS. One thing I never considered when I saw the blocking being advertised a couple of weeks ago is how much the really cold air is trapped on the other side of the hemisphere.
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Come on Ji. the pattern is amazing. Dont sweat an op run. Although sweat is what you do.
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Happy New Year. Calling it right now. We are gonna get hammered in mid January. The upcoming pattern has beatdown written all over it. Well. Maybe those of us north and west will at least.
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GFS starts bringing ridging to the west coast on the 11th and 12th. Has a monster cutter during that time frame. But the pattern looks better after that.
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Yes. The Hi Rez Euro has this as a legit snow threat for the area as well.
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The GFS does do that later in the run. Pushes a nice ridge to the west coast. We can live with this:
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How the hell did I just get spammed in a PM here?
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The GFS doesnt look horrible at the end of the run. West coast low closer to the Aleutians. Still an east based block. But that look is better in the Pac. Of course it is way out there in GFS lala land.
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I already put the troll on ignore. He might be the fastest to ever make it to my ignore list.
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Light snow in Winchester. Merry Christmas everyone!
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47 with some mist out here. Been 47 degrees for about the past 10 hours. Hoping for enough to whiten ground overnight at least.
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GFS has nice timing on the frontal wave for Christmas day. Would be snow TV for those of us to the west. Festive weather for sure. CMC has it too. Hi Rez Euro is coming around to it as well. A couple of hours of light snow on this run for the Winchester area.
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The GFS actually has decent timing with the little wave on Christmas morning as well. Snow TV for a lot of us.
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I dont get the complaints. The GFS has a really nice storm for early January. And it has been keying on that time frame for days. The pattern is fine. Maybe not a blockbuster pattern with the PAC being modelled the way it is. But it is a good upcoming pattern for some snow.
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Miller B train. Although the GFS does like the early Jan period. One of those shortwaves has to hit over the next couple of weeks. I cant see us getting shutout going into our prime climo with that much blocking. Maybe just some small overrun events. But no way we are shut out with that pattern.
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I mean he is just pointing out that the setup is perfect for a big storm. Trying to nail down the day it happens from 10 days out is laughable.
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Agreed. The GFS is not handling the upcoming block very well. A little stronger HP up top and that is a KY to SC jumper and we get smashed.
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Its all about the number of chances brother. Give us an active pattern and we all will score at some point. Maybe not all at the same time though.
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GFS still pretty nice for the Shenandoah Valley with the monster frontal passage. And really active through most of the run. Fun 2 weeks coming up.
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Some flakes down around CHO that might make it to DC. 29/27
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NAM is pretty close for you DC folks on Monday. Tuesday clipper brings some flurries in the Winchester area.
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GFS caved to the Euro for Christmas. Slower overall. 1047 HP over Greenland late in the run.
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Snowpack holding on well. About 6 inches left. My son came out from DC today to Winchester. He is a Navy guy based in DC. He said it was amazing watching the depth of snow change on the drive. As soon as he got past Mount Weather to the bottom of the mountain the snowpack doubled in size. 32 and cloudy with a 20% chance of snow showers tonight. So nice to have a real winter finally after last years debacle.
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Would need the timing of the wave to happen just as depicted though. Regardless. I would take an inch of wind driven snow on Christmas eve.
