clskinsfan

I am just going by upper air maps. It looks like it would be a perfect 500 pass to me. But what do I know?

FWIW the 12Z RGEM would be a hit. And looks a lot like the NAM.

Its not that we are below average. The issue is the pattern has been good for snow. And on top of that we have had storms. Just not snowstorms. We got unlucky on the timing of the block setting up. All of the cold air got trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. And the rest is history. I still think we get hit in late January/early Feb. though.

Yep. Much weaker vort this run.

It's actually decent agreement from a week out with the op for a west of the fall line storm.

NAM gets some snow into the OC area on Saturday. Might have to head to the beach this weekend.

I dont think anyone mentioned it in the other thread. But the UKIE looks good at 144. Already starting to phase. Would have been a nice storm IMO.

Work forced me to miss the Euro run. But oh man. Thing is the GFS was actually pretty close to the same deal. Just missed by a little bit. Gonna be a fun week of tracking.

GFS is so close to a bomb for the 12th. Will be a fish storm as depicted. But I am loving the chances from the USAF storm.

Nope. Charlottesville gets nothing.

If you watch the animation of that 500 panel above you can see the block relaxing and surging. We are gonna get hit during at least one of those relaxations. And I dont care what the weeklies say. A block like that is most likely going to be persistent throughout the entire winter. Could it relax and be less extreme towards mid February. Yep. And that might actually be a great thing for us. Just look at how the models have been handling this so far. Cutters into a strong -NAO? I have been more worried about suppression than anything else ever since the models starting advertising the extreme blocking. We are going to get ours this winter.

Haha. Not only the wrong thread but the wrong board. The post was meant for the Washington Football Team forum

wrong thread

Draft picks

Hi Rez Euro is a big hit for just about everyone for the storm on the 12th.

Agreed. Plus we have everyone back for this game. We should smash you.

Charlottesville gets nothing on either Euro.

Hi Rez Euro is a nice hit for Roanoke. No Precip north of Richmond. Salisbury does get a little at the end.

UKIE through 144 is a huge hit for SW Va. Decent hit up the entire 81 corridor. Ninja'd

GFS is finally getting a clue that the mid month setup is awesome. I am still more worried about squished storms than rain.

The NAM's have lost all frozen over the past couple of runs for tomorrow. Kind of weird to see them warm up as we get closer to the event. That is the opposite of what we usually see from them.

Usually a block like that isnt going anywhere for a while. It might relax for a bit, which could end up being a good thing for us, but it will probably be here through. the winter. I am actually more concerned with suppression than anything else with blocking the way it is being modelled.

I think Its real. Nuts. But real:

I had to Google Aomori city. The pics from that place are outrageous: