clskinsfan

Its a shame he did because he might have reaped his earliest souls this year. I am fine with losing December if we can get the pattern to flip heading into prime climo. But I am not giving up on December either at this point. The MJO forecast is pretty good with some solid amplification into phase 7 by mid December. With the possibility of heading into 8 in late December. The AO and NAO are also both forecast to head to at least neutral if not slightly negative in that same timeframe.

While visions of Superstorms danced in their heads.

Long day at work. And late reporting but had a dusting this morning just NW of WInchester. First measurable this year is actually a couple of weeks later than usual. Currently 34/28 under a high wind watch. ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...West to northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Along and east of ridgelines between the Allegheny Front and Interstate 81.

latest HRRR liking the Winchester area for some light accumulation tonight. This snow starved weenie would like to see it.

I think we have a Chance to steal a little accumulation tonight. I have only seen flakes once so far just a little east of you.

Nope. Nothing.

Yep. And once again it appears the cold air will trapped on the other side of the hemisphere early this winter. I hope that isnt a sign of things to come in the future.

may as well keep having fun. I am not seeing a "storm mode" in our near future.

Down to 23 this morning. Feels great out.

Wow. I am feeling quite overwhelmed at this point.

The blocking looks to hold on through mid Dec at least. None of us are getting buried the next 4 weeks. But I think snow is coming for the favored areas. Now give me a weenie.

Not really. COD could be acceptable now. But no amplification is not a good thing heading into Dec.

Would rather have that in November than late DEC/early JAN. I will take a front end chance with losing the rest of Nov and early DEC for a flip into late DCE early Jan every time.

It was a DC Bullseye. Check out Sue Palka in this vid. Crazy she has been doing it that long,.

Happy Turkey day!

Agreed. Although we usually see our first flakes out here in mid November. Usually from a streamer. And that looks quite possible again this year.

Long range MJO forecast for November isnt really great. Very little amplification. Solidly in COD by November 15th.

Just got back today from 9 days in Punta Cana. Was 85 and perfect when I left there. Got home to 55 and drizzle. A slap in the face for sure.

Chilling out here now. Perfect fall weather. 58 degrees.

Your guess is as good as Chucks.

Yeah. Meant to say one that is happening in MT. I was pretty hammered last night. So just ignore.

Simply perfect out. Windows open. NFL on TV and feels really nice right now.

Mid West Blizzard MIGHT be a decent December/January sign for us. The last monster mid October blizzard like the one that is coming was a pre curser to the winter of 1939/40. Early blockbuster. Buried the entire East coast and Europe. I know. I am a weenie. But do some research on that setup. Then look at this October. If I am right. Expect a pretty warm November followed by the bottom dropping out in Dec/Jan. And tons of front end precip. Those who know me on here know I dont usually do long range stuff. But this October setup intrigues me. And of course I am purely guessing. Just like everyone else.

I feel like I have lived in Seattle over the past week. Horrible weather.

Ill take my chances with blocking in December. Especially with some cold air on our side of the hemisphere. I would much rather be worrying about blocking breaking down than wondering if any blocking is ever going to happen.