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clskinsfan

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Everything posted by clskinsfan

  1. clskinsfan
    On the bright side for next winter. Without an Aleutian low this winter we are much more likely to get a nino next year. I am not tossing this winter yet. But the Pac is ugly. And I am not seeing how that is going to break down anytime soon. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/8/jcli-d-19-0717.1.xml
  2. clskinsfan
    Going into 8 in January broke the computer. If it does make it into 8 the MJO forecast from a month ago would be spot on. So kudo's to that.
  3. clskinsfan
    Yeah. I have been watching the models wanting to cut everything in the long range. And we can actually score some snow with some entrenched cold air in those events. A front end thump followed by a dryslot. We have had multiple 6+ inch events out this way in the past decade from that. Including last February.
  4. clskinsfan
    Yeah. I hope that isnt going to be trend this winter. We have seen that happen far too often.
  5. clskinsfan
    MJO enters 8 on Christmas day. Merry Christmas! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif
  6. clskinsfan
    Agree. Terrifying. Pitch black with the power out and then you see the monster in lightning flashes. That guy has a huge set of huevos.
  7. clskinsfan
  8. clskinsfan
    My wife was just up at Longwood last weekend with my mom and sister in law. She said it was pretty amazing. We were at Butchart Gardens a couple of years ago in BC and it is the most amazing garden we have ever seen. If you ever have a chance to go there do it. We were lucky enough to catch it on an Alaskan cruise. Here are some pics of Longwood she took last weekend:
  9. clskinsfan
    Horrifying images out of that region. Prayers for all effected.
  10. clskinsfan
    My thoughts and prayers go out to the people of your region. Stay strong.
  11. clskinsfan
    That is obviously possible. But I like the AO and NAO forecast on top of the MJO. I cant remember What the forecast was for those in 2020 though.
  12. clskinsfan
    That is actually better for us. We want 8 into January. It is game on if that happens. And yes. I know the MJO can and has failed for us. But I am loving the amplitude into 7 from 6. Give me that with a tanking AO and a NAO that is at least neutral and I will take my chances. Yes. I live in place that likes to snow. But what I am seeing forecast in the LR looks like weenie heaven for the majority of us.
  13. clskinsfan
    I agree with this. With how amped into 7 it is supposed to get 8 seems like almost a sure thing.
  14. clskinsfan
    The Euro was locked in 4 days ago. You cant ask for much more out of a weather model IMO.
  15. clskinsfan
    I think you are trying to break out BECS. But those dont seem to exist anymore south of 40. It appears the rumors of the death of king Euro were premature once again.
  16. clskinsfan
    That second map reminds me of 2010. Something brewing on the southern jet off the coast of Baja as well. Tasty looking map.
  17. clskinsfan
    Hi res Euro looks like the Rgem. East of the Blue Ridge for any precip.
  18. clskinsfan
    Nobody mentioned the ICON but it is similar to the GFS. A little less amped though. UKie is ugly. maybe a half inch up around Baltimore.
  19. clskinsfan
    The RGEM was horrid last winter for sure. I dont trust any of them. Was just making an observation.
  20. clskinsfan
    12Z RGEM not bad for you guys to the east. Maybe an inch east of the Blue Ridge. Sucks out this way though.
  21. clskinsfan
    GFS still has the storm riding up the boundary next weekend. Something to watch at least.
  22. clskinsfan
    We are going to get pretty amped into 7. I will be shocked if we dont make it to 8 in late Dec early Jan at this point. If we can keep some blocking north of us and keep the AO at least neutral I will take my chances.
  23. clskinsfan
    Was mentioning this a couple of days ago. I am liking that mid December period for a chance. Not just the MJO but the AO and NAO as well. Obviously not prime climo for us. Even me out here. But we have a chance.
  24. clskinsfan
    Solid Winchester snow hole. Has to be right.
  25. clskinsfan
    What in the flying **** are talking about Chuck?
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