Hazey

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We often joke in here that rainy cutters followed by a frigid blast is a "1980s pattern"....those of us snow lovers who grew up with that remember all too well and not in a good way.

Yeah now it's just rainy cutters followed by mild downs. Fingers crossed this winter bucks the trend.

Still a ways out but Halloween is looking toasty on the long range. Fingers crossed. 

Strong nor’easter at best. Not sweating this one.

24hrs without power. Just got it back. Minimal damage that I can see. Just small branches and leaf particles plastered over everything. Had sold gusts into the 60’s mph. Long duration. 18hrs + of Tropical storm conditions. Fun but pretty meh overall.

72 mph gust at YHZ. Lost power hours ago. Probably many hours before it comes back. Some damage but worst will be later this afternoon/eve.

We are getting PRE effects now. Very hvy rain and T&L. Flooding a concern before Lee even arrives. Good times ahead.

Place to be for this one I think. Whatever fury Lee has to give, good chance this place will experience it.

https://www.brierisland.com

Nice to see the euro throw someone else’s skin in the game. This is going to be a fun week. Nerve wracking but exciting.

Another hit for me on the 18z gfs although very weakened. I guess I can hope for that if that track holds.

Shit the euro looks to be joining the other models with a track into sw NS.  Welp...I guess I'll start my yearly Hurricane preparations. Grrr.

Damn. That's like multiple gfs runs that are zeroing in on sw Nova Scotia. Still a long ways off but that's a bad track for up here. Lee better have crap beat out of it before it gets to this latitude. Yikes.

Darn. I was hoping the 12z gfs was on to something with the ots run. Looks like it’s trending back. Concerning but not worried…yet.

It's possible future Margot will be the turd in the punchbowl for up at this latitude. Lee finds the weakness flees towards it. We'll see how this plays out. 

And it’s still 10 days away…lol. We watch.

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If we didn’t have absurd SSTs and OHC across the basin this would be a slam dunk BN season IMO.

Fiona last year, then the Franklin threat, remnants of Idalia, and now this and the follow up  .

Heater out your way. 

LOL Yeah we've been on the heater since Dorian. Can't buy a white Christmas but no issues getting strong canes up here.

Love the Cat4/5 followup on the GFS sitting in the pocket. Good times ahead. The best of times.

Hopefully this pulls a Franklin and we all live happily ever after. No harm no foul.

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are starting to show a possible east coast hit in the long range but it's a long ways out.

One thing that's troubling is that a ridge will be in place.

This will be the one to watch IMO. Pattern looks favorable for an east coast threat. Of course that could change in a week. 

Frankie looking solid this morning. High end cat 4 attainable? Still think this may take a swipe at St. John's and possibly at good intensity.  

Bermuda might be back in the game for direct effects. Looking less impactful for the Canadian maritimes. YYT still has to watch this.

Interesting scenarios for that trough interaction. That will be the thing to watch in the coming model runs. Transitioning TC fooling with guidance at this lead time.

Yeah don’t like where this is trending. F that gfs run. Yikes.

Aren’t there posters lurking in here from NS ?
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/23/americas/nova-scotia-canada-rain-floods/index.html

A bit damp here too. Just over 10” in 24hrs. Quite a mess

Looks like 90's are confined to northern Quebec and southern Labrador. This over the top heat the new normal? Our weather is whacked..lol