Steve25

This forum has officially switched from most of the users hoping for any kind of snow events... to harassing anyone hopeful for snow, telling them it will never snow again this winter or any other winter in the future in this region so get used to it

That's what I've been saying. Every day that passes, BWI gets a little closer to setting the all time record!

Have switched to the mindset that if it's going to be bad, let's shoot for historically bad so at least we can say we experienced a record! Still very much in play for the record lowest season snowfall for BWI. Currently standing at 0.7 in 1949/50.

My point was that it keeps being repeated yet this thread continues to hype up this potential. It just doesn't make sense. We have a hard enough time getting substantial snows in general, then you add in that we're in a La Nina, and that this potential has no true cold air to tap into and the fact that there's any buzz in here just makes little sense.

How many times will variations of "lack of cold air is the problem" need to be said before the reality finally sets in?

I love snow as much as anyone else in here, but I also try to see things as they are and I'm officially in panic mode. Some of you will tell me "It's only January 6th, you're insane." It just feels like the writing is on the wall. So, to keep the tracking interesting, I'm seeing if BWI can take a run at the lowest all time seasonal snow totals. The lowest ever was 0.7 in 1949/50. We've also had a couple that stayed under 2 inches. If it's going to be bad, why not shoot for the record lol.

Can someone explain in simple terms where the cold air is for this potential period? I see very very marginal chilly air the next few days, followed by the "red" on the models creeping back in, followed by a slight dip by the marginal blues again, then that storm threat you've been talking about, but with seemingly no significant source of legit cold air anywhere. To my untrained eye, it looks like even with a perfect track, this storm would need to manufacture its own cold air. There also appears to be no semblance of cold air behind this potential. I'm just looking at the models and having trouble seeing the potential that's being hyped up without a legitimate source of cold air.

We will have to circle back to this

I haven't even seen flurries yet. I'll take any pure snow falling at this point.

I'm genuinely at the point where I'm questioning if BWI will challenge 1949/50 which recorded the lowest winter snow total of 0.7 inches. Not only have we not seen accumulation of any kind, but I haven't even seen pure snow flakes yet. By pure I mean snow flurries or showers that aren't sloppy and mixed with rain lol.

I personally couldn't ever care less about what the Icon, Ukie, or frankly even the CMC show. But when they're all in agreement with the Euro, that's a very bad sign and trend. One is going to move towards the others at 0z tonight...

Counterpoint to the idea that you're living in the wrong area if you root for big storms. I'd agree if you mean you want a big storm every winter. We're going on 7 years since our last single snowfall that reached even 8 inches. Even for this area, that's a pretty extended stretch. So can't really blame the folks who are feeling that way.

It's absolutely true about the days following big storms and how they can either accentuate or blur the memories a bit. There's something truly special about big snows being followed by bitter cold for at least a few days.

That month of January 2016 was also the last time we went substantially into double digit snowfall for the month total at BWI. The only other month since then that reached double digits was last January when we nickled and dimed our way to about 14 inches for the month. I'm trying to think of what was our best single storm/event snow total has been since that January of 2016. Maybe like 4 to 5 inches a couple times? The itch is real for a big one.

If I'm reading this correctly, is it reasonable to say we shouldn't have any real hopes for a significant snow event out of this potential for next week? If so, what type of trend for this potential should I be pulling for on the models in the coming days that you would say would lead to the most realistic shot of any type of accumulating snow, for the period around next Friday?

Isn't it trending towards colder but also dry?

The thing I'm not understanding about the "cold chasing precip never works" people is that next week there's a semblance of cold air already around BEFORE the potential storm takes shape next week. Obviously if the low forms right over us or to the west, it doesn't really matter what the temperatures are coming in, at least in terms of pure snow. Just from what I can see, it seems like this is almost entirely about where the main low pressure takes over vs not having enough cold air in place to make it work. Correct me if I'm wrong. Many much more intelligent folks in here.

Non-scientific but I'm using the "Were due" logic for this pattern in the final 10 days of December. BWI has went 12 consecutive December's with less than 5 inches of snow(10 out of those 12 have recorded less than 1.6 inches). I'm aware December's aren't a strong snow month overall for our region but that's still a particularly bleak stretch.

I know everyone is moving on from Friday but I'm still hanging on the edge because I'm supposed to have some pretty significant outdoor plans so it's pretty annoying that the GFS has seemed to get rid of that storm entirely, yet the Euro still has plenty of rain. Let's get some consensus lol.

Random insect question, but has anyone been seeing a ton of these orange and black colored flying bugs specifically on these days where it gets warm? They've been everywhere in my neighborhood near Towson. They don't appear to be aggressive but there's tons of them fluttering around. They're not anything significantly large. Maybe slightly bigger than a typical firefly. I did a little research and the only thing I could find was "Boxelder" bugs, but honestly these look a little more fuzzy/fluffy than those do in the images.

To be honest, I'm kind of at peace with this stretch because I was lucky enough to experience one of the most unbelievable winters in terms of snow of all time around here in 09/10. Also, three consecutive very solid winters from 13/14 to 15/16. Felt due for an extended stretch of sub-par. What comes around goes around.

A few BWI facts tidbits going into this winter: The December's on average have been the worst snow month since records have been kept. They average about 2.5 inches in that month since official records have been kept. With that said, they are in a particularly bleak stretch. 12 consecutive winters with less than 5 inches of snow. To put that in perspective, they've reached 12 consecutive one other time in history (1990/91 through 2001/02). Never reached 13, so that could happen for the first time ever this winter. Just an added stat, 10 out the past 12 have been 1.6 inches or lower and 6 out of 12 have been less than an inch. Brutal. They have also went 6 consecutive winters with 19 inches of snow or less in total. The only time they have went longer was 1970/71 to 1976/77 with 7 consecutive. They can tie that this winter.

I was just saying this to people today! It's really the only month of the year I'm good with being warmer than average. 10 degrees above average is like, mid to upper 60s for highs in November. That's gorgeous. I love winter weather like most of us in here, but days in the 60s are incredible. A little chill, but if it's sunny and dry it's very comfy.

Parkville, Maryland: January 3rd- 3" January 7th- 4.5" January 16th- 2.5" followed by rain January 29th- 1.5" February 14th- 1" March 12th- 1" Total- 13.5" Yet another below average winter snowfall wise. January started with some real hope in the first week, and that was about it. Considering it took until January to even see a trace of snow, and we essentially went snowless in February, I grade this winter a D+. It tried for a little bit in early January but ultimately it completely failed on what looked to be a prime pattern in the back half of January and didn't even show up to class in most of December, February and March.