Steve25

I'm surprised some of you are already just writing off the period around next weekend. It feels like the models haven't come close to figuring out exactly how it'll play out, particularly with all this action in the week leading up to it.

I can only speak for myself, of course, but any legit cold would only raise my morale. I'm a winter lover all the way through.

How do you guys feel about the weekend of the 13th/14th? Does the overall pattern look like it would lend itself to another NW/cutter type of track like mid-week?

Part of the reason our climate is warming is due to all the hot air being blown around in these forums. In all seriousness, though, all those who truly believe this winter(or all winters moving forward) are dead, do yourselves a favor and step away from the models and the forums. If you are 100% sure of what's coming, then there's absolutely no reason to keep looking.

I'm still just happy colder airmasses continue to get closer and closer. Some of y'all really could benefit from just walking away from the models and forum for a week and come back on the 29th and see how things look.

I'm just happy to be seeing a lot more large swaths of cold air on the models now. Always the first step.

Are you okay?

I'm sorry. Rational thinking and logic is not welcome in the panic room.

I'll take cold and dry over mild during the winter all day. We have 3 out of 4 seasons that already give us primarily mild weather. Love when we get one of those extended super cold periods like we had in early January 2018. Loved going out to see how frozen the bodies of water were around town. Only get potential for true winter weather for 2, maybe 3, months of the year. I'm trying to soak it up!

If you're around 30 years old, or older, you've lived in a golden age for HECS. Out of the largest snowstorms in Baltimores history, 4 of the top 5 have occurred since 1996(96, 03, 10, 16). You can also throw in the other two blizzards from 09/10 that are in the top 10. 6 of the top 10 snowstorms of all time have happened in the last 27 years. Of course, with that has come less average snow per winter. AKA, we're seeing a lot less of the winters with multiple 5-8 inch snowfalls. Based on this regions "recent" climate, I'd feel a lot better about getting a massive smash storm as opposed to multiple moderate events. I'd happily take either, though.

Our climate definitely has entered an interesting place in the past 30 years or so. Our average snowfall per year has definitely declined, but the number of huge storms has increased in frequency. 4 of Baltimores top 5 two-day snowstorms were 96, 03, 10, and 16. For those in these forums who are old enough to have been tracking storms since the 90s, you've actually grown up in a golden age for big snowstorms. Unfortunately, it's come with the trade-off of having more dud winters to deal with.

I like the "every 7 years" logic. It doesn't account for a winter like 09/10 with multiple historic storms, but in my lifetime, this area has had a MAJOR SNOWSTORM on winters almost exactly 7-ish years apart. 96, 03, 09/10, 16...

If the heaviest precip doesn't last for at least 16 hours consistently, it's a bust!

I'm just so thankful my sump pump is working! Have been having issues with it. Kind of had to improvise to get it functional because I wasn't able to buy a new one before the storm. It's been chugging along really well!

For sure. It is hard to blame folks, though. It's been a really tough stretch. Coming off the worst winter in this regions entire history, within possibly the worst stretch of winters in history, coming up on a massive nor'easter on Christmas week that will be entirely rain. My hope is alive for January and February, but I get it.

I haven't come close to giving up on this winter, which is why this post isn't going in the panic room thread. I do think there's some level of cruel irony that there were a few people comparing this winter setup to 09/10, and now we're sitting here looking at a near perfect track for a monster coastal storm around December 19th, remembering that we cashed in huge on December 19th in 2009, but this time it's going to be all rain because there's just no source of cold. Just a little painful.

It's wild to me how some of you are of the "Epic winter or bust" mentality. I understand with the Nino and the years of futility we are desperate, but I'm going on 8 full years since I've witnessed even a 6 inch snowfall. You better believe, if I get ONE double digit storm this winter, I'm going to treasure it!

I just had a memory pop up on my Facebook from this day in 2010 and I was posting about how it was cold, but there were no signs of snow in the foreseeable future, and just whining/complaining about it. In early December directly following our unbelievable 09/10. What a pathetic weenie I was! LOL

BWI: 27.6" DCA: 20.3" IAD: 32.1" RIC: 13.2" Tiebreaker SBY: 15.5"

Saw this on Twitter. As much as this is supposed to be frustrating, all I can think about is that January of 2016 was the last time Baltimore experienced a significant snowfall.

It definitely is interesting! Taking a quick look, 94-95 was the final year represented on this list before the 2020s. I think the simple reason for that is the massive "outlier" years started skewing the 7 year sample size starting in 95-96. 95-96, BWI was 62.5 inches Then, 7 years later in 02-03 they had 58.1. Then, 7 years after that in 09-10, 77 inches.

Yeah, there's some odd numbers on that list. All I know for a fact, is that the winters of 2016-17 through 2022-23 is the lowest snowfall period for BWI over a 7 winter stretch in record keeping history.

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.

Yeah, that's precisely what I'm saying. I don't want to be too repetitive with what you're saying. To answer what you're saying, even if there were the exact same signals and setup, no, I don't think we'd see anywhere close to the same positivity. I think we'd get a lot of "I'll believe it when I see it."

I also think it's fair to say that even if there were very promising signals for the upcoming winter, it's going to be hard for many to show too much optimism or hope just due to the period we're living in. I don't even know if it's arguable anymore that the past 7 year stretch is the worst in this areas history. BWI is coming off it's lowest snow season in 140 years of keeping official records. They've been under 19 inches total for 7 consecutive seasons, tying the all time record from 70/71 to 76/77. Our stretch being notably worse though, with 3 of these 7 years being three inches or less. That period in the 70s only had one such season. If we make it to January of 2024, it'll be 8 consecutive years since our last area wide 6+ inch snowstorm. On top of all that statistical data, we have all the talk that this is not just a bad stretch, this is the new normal around here. It's a dark time for winter enthusiasts in this region and it doesn't make it easier when every time someone brings up a positive signal for the winter, there's someone countering it with why it's not as positive as you may think.