Steve25

Can a rug be pulled if it hasn't been realistically laid out yet?

It's funny that it's supposed to be warm on Saturday and that makes me feel more confident we will get some snow on Sunday.

If we're being completely fair, we have stayed on our 5-7 year average for foot+ storms in Baltimore. Next winter will be 7 years since the last one, so we're not overdue at all. We're pretty much on pace. Its the 5-11 inch, moderate type of snow events that have come close to disappearing in recent history.

I know the averages are getting worse. Average snowfall per winter has went down a few ticks. Average temps in winter months has climbed a few ticks compared to history. With that said, if you go back through our history of keeping weather records, and compile all the 12+ inch storms, throughout our entire history(dating back to the late 1800s), we average one storm of that variety approximately every 6 years. So if we're just speaking in terms of "Major Snowstorms", were really not in any kind of significant drought. If we somehow get one in February or March, we will be right on target. If it happens next winter, we really aren't that far off the average. Now that's just speaking on huge storms. I'm sure there's stats that show that the amount of like 5-10 inch storms have dropped significantly in recent history compared to over the full history of our area. The stat on big storms is also skewed by a winter like 09/10 because we got THREE storms that winter over a foot. So honestly it's probably generous to say we average one every 6 years. We're averaging major snowstorms(12"+) more frequently in the past 30 years than any other period in our history. Ironically, it's probably one of our worst periods in history when it comes to events in the 5-11 inch range. Definitely gives some credence to the climate argument that the averages are getting worse but the extremes are becoming more frequent.

GFS continues to tell folks in western Connecticut and NY that you'll get nothing and like it! Will be interesting to see if it pans out

You should name the next thread "Our next big disappointment" just to try to reverse jinx the weather powers that be

Wouldn't it just make more sense for a snowstorm to follow and brief but legitimate warm up vs in the midst of a consistent stretch of cold weather? This is the Mid-Atlantic after all lol

I'm actually becoming really fascinated by the difference in snow amounts from the areas that will see snow from the coastal like the Eastern Shore, NJ, NY, Connecticut. Some DRAMATIC differences in NAM/Euro vs GFS for some of those areas.

IconICK

To be fair I think it was PSU who warned that the Euro and Nam tend to be way too amped in these scenarios so if they come in with the best results to go easy with reactions. Not discrediting anything anyone is saying but just trying to keep in mind some words from the wise.

I dream of experiencing something like this. With the plethora of forecasting tools now though, I doubt anything this extreme will happen. Also, the way things tend to be way over hyped as opposed to under hyped, doesn't leave much of an opportunity. Can always hope though.

As a weenie, I'm enjoying the Euro but in all reality my best case REALISTIC expectations around Baltimore are some snow on Friday, maybe 1-3 inches and then getting scraped by the backedge of the coastal snow Saturday. I have no expectation at all for anything more than 6 inches at best(if the coastal throws enough juice back here), but just knowing how these scenarios typically play out and how the setup looks I have no expectation for a crazy big outcome.

Yeah it'll be a watch the boardwalk cams for me

Still gives OC nearly 30 inches lmao

This is absurd for Ocean City. I have to imagine if this is even close to realistic, there's going to be a lot of chasers heading down there

Has there been any model runs that have actually shown tracks similar to those in red so far? Does the overall pattern even support a track tucked that close to the coast? As far as what I've seen and heard over the past week or so the answers to both those questions are both a resounding no.

I've always been curious about people who chase. Would you designate a certain amount of days you'd be okay with being stuck wherever you go? I ask because I have three days off from work starting on Saturday, and I'm partially considering driving to the coast if it looks much better setup, but if they do get buried, I'd have the concern of being stuck there.

I'm as much of a weenie as anyone but I'm not feeling it. I keep seeing the very intelligent people in the forum saying how 95% of the time this setup doesn't work out great west of the bay yet everyone seems to just be burying that and desperately hoping for the 5% chance it defies odds. I'm a very rational person and I just can't go against what looks to be an overwhelming likely outcome. It's been looking like from the beginning that this setup screams something huge for someone up in the New England area. I feel bad for saying this but honestly I can't enjoy 2-4 inches if I know NJ, NYC or Boston is getting 2-3 feet. It's just too bitter. It honestly makes me a little sad when I go in the storm thread because I know how desperately everyone wants the big one, and I also think with it looking more and more evident that at least the beginning of February will start mild and possibly stormy/rainy, the pull of desperation is getting pretty intense.

No you're absolutely right, but on the flip side, there's also been several times the talk is that the long range looks brutal and it actually turns out to deliver. I'm not saying that will be the case now, but it works both ways in the long range. It's why I never understand why people in here get so high or so low based on looks at 10 days or beyond. It's such a waste of time. With that said, the medium/long range thread REEKS of desperation. It's actually kind of sad to go in there.

YES! Another major threat that's about 10 days away!

I hope your optimism pays off, but I can't help but not feel so great considering were currently entrenched in the period that was "what's coming down the pike" not too long ago and things aren't looking too hot.

There's a dark side of me that actually finds it somewhat humorous that it's now looking all too possible that we are going to make it through this "primed and ready" period without any substantial snows. I told myself before when everyone was losing their minds about how incredible the mid/long range looked that it's a bad omen. Its just amazing to me how many times the talk in here is how great OR terrible the long range looks, then it arrives and it's not as advertised. Keeping with that same energy, if the talk starts to be that things look brutal for February, I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if that's when we actually get a nice storm. Just the way things seem to go in here. It's a crapshoot in here with everyone trying to figure out what the setup is going to be in a week, yet somehow we talk seriously about 14+ days away. Give me a break.

At least the GFS hasn't had 3 runs showing a monster coastal storm within the past two days lol

I've been putting it off and trying not to accept this new reality, but I'm officially on board with the GFS as our new king. Euro on its knees begging for the GFS to be merciful with him lol