Steve25

Yeah, starting to see the dreaded “Pattern should be much more favorable by March” remarks.

Punting to March? Yikes

Just to clarify, we are not concerned about fighting a significant warmup after next weekend? Trying to not put much stock into the 0z suite tonight

I didn’t realize just how bad February has been in Baltimore, honestly going all the way back to 2011. February is historically BWIs snowiest month, averaging 7.5 inches. 2014 and 2015 were good. Both saw just under 15 inches in February. Aside from that, BWI has been below average every other February since 2011. 13 out of 15 years. 10 out of those 13 years have seen less than 3 inches. In the 141 years of record keeping for BWI, they’ve recorded double digit snowfall in February 37 times. That comes out to about once every 4 years on average. It’s been 10 consecutive years without a double digit February. Most of them have been LOW in the single digits as well. I’d say the WDI is very high!

14 in downtown Bmore.

It wasn’t far off from a couple systems swinging by, though. For whatever that’s worth. On another note, the regular Euro continues to be pretty unenthusiastic about any potential system next week

It is. I tried walking on some of the untouched, grass covered areas today and it actually caught me off guard how slick it was.

Love the idea of this potential getting juiced up a bit but can we not do 1 inch in Baltimore while just to west everyone gets 6-10

I only remember it because I took before and after pics of a lake nearby on January 1st and then a week later on the 8th and it froze completely over. First time I had ever seen that happen.

One cold period that I rarely see brought up, likely because it was dry, is the end of December 2017 into January 2018. It dropped below freezing in the evening on December 26th, and didn’t rise above freezing until the afternoon on January 8th. 12/13 consecutive days of freezing or below. There were also several days in that stretch that barely got to 20 degrees. This current stretch will likely end up being about 9/10 days consecutively sub freezing.

Downtown Baltimore never fails to amaze me in terms of temperature. It’s currently 18 degrees. Barely dropped since the sun went down. I could drive 13 minutes away, just outside of the city to Catonsville where it’s already down to 12 degrees. I understand why it happens, it’s just wild.

That storm broke my 10 year streak of no snowfalls over 5 inches IMBY. And yes, that’s pure snow, I’m not counting the sleet for that. Got about 7 inches of snow and then 3/4 inches of sleet. So for that, I am thankful! Still having trouble wrapping my mind around the fact that I went 10 years without experiencing a 6+ inch snowfall.

Interesting examples. At BWI: 2002/03 had 15 inches going into February. Finished with 58.1. 2009/10 had 27. Finished with 77. Even though it doesn’t technically count I’ll throw it in since it was close. 2013/14 had 12.7. Finished with 39. BWI is currently at 13.1 I believe. Obviously we can’t guarantee this February will be BN, but if it is, it’s in fairly good company to have a backloaded finish.

I’m with you for my area in specific, but I think we do need to keep in mind that this community isn’t just Central Maryland or northern areas. If I’m not mistaken, the Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland peeps got mostly left out of our last storm because they were too far south/east, and NOW they’re too far north/west for this coastal storm. So I really can’t blame those people for being very bitter at the moment.

With two more nights flirting with the single digits near Baltimore, I’m hoping to do a nice hike on Saturday to enjoy this frozen landscape. I’d like to go somewhere that has a river running through it and preferably maybe a waterfall. The two parks coming up the most in my searches are Patapsco Park(Cascade Falls) and Susquehanna Park(Kilgore Falls). If anyone has any other recommendations I’m all ears! Just trying to capitalize before our big warmup next week(into the 30s LOL)

The GFS is definitely the worst of the group, but it’s not lost on me that the Euro and its counterparts were the ones that really got us sucked in to this weekends potential before it went poof.

I think most people can agree to this sentiment but it will never change the fact that people will weenie or deb over specific model results at range. It’s the nature of the game

I was seeing plenty of drip drip even when it was 18 degrees and sunny the other morning. Never ceases to amaze me how strong the suns impact is.

Still running just about 5 degrees above modeled temps around Baltimore. Had me topping out around 21 degrees around 2 PM. It’s already 25

Yeah it’s odd. I’ve been consistently around 5 degrees warmer than any model has shown. Just for example tonight, the 0z NAM, GFS, and 18z Euro all had my area at 14 degrees at 1 AM tonight. It’s currently 20 and hasn’t dropped in at least an hour. I just find it odd that it seems like all the models across the board are in agreement on temps and are all wrong.

I do think it’s not quite as extremely cold as modeled. Obviously it’s still plenty cold, but it’s been consistently about 3-5 degrees warmer than modeling projected

Last I saw he was being a little shy about making any real claims so far this time. He basically just said it’s a very fragile setup with lots of tiny moving parts that can alter the situation drastically. Understandable that he wouldn’t want to jump on any one solution after his absolute disaster last week.

Was just talking about that with my friend. Last Tuesday afternoon we were rooting hard for the north trend and then it all changed at 18z and particularly 0z that night!

Because of course lol. Hopefully the CMC and Euro trend favorably too!

It would be just like the GFS if it’s a hit at 12z while everything else stays or moves further out to sea lol