Steve25

I’d say that was a very successful 12z suite. GFS and Icon became much more favorable. Euro and Ukie stayed very good. CMC was the only real downer, and I don’t think that’s worth stressing over.

Anarchy

Let’s be honest here, even if the Canadian showed a monster, everyone still would be living or dying on the Euro

Looks like it brings the best of accumulation east of the OP, but not drastically. Still great!

Hey, I work at DCA1! Sounds like a nightmare

BE STILL MY BEATING HEART!

I don’t think “pretty brutal” does this stretch of years service, specifically around Baltimore. I think a strong argument could be made that this is the worst stretch of winters BWI has ever had in the history of record keeping, in terms of snowfall. 8 consecutive winters with total snowfall under 19 inches coming into this winter. That has never been done before. BWI went 7 winters in a row one other time in history, but even during that stretch, they only were held to single digits once. We’ve been held to single digits 3 times in the past 8 years. One of those being literally our worst winter of all time, with the 0.2 inches in 2022/23. There are 8 and 9 year old children who live around here who have no clue what a legitimate snowstorm is like. We’ve had a couple storms around Baltimore during this stretch where if you happen to measure in the perfect spot, you may scratch the surface of 6 inches, but that’s been the max for 9+ years. To say we’re due for a big one at some point is an understatement.

The thing I don’t understand are the people saying the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. PSU, along with some of the other intelligent posters in here have been saying for a while now that the real opportunity for something significant will be around the 18th or later, if I’m not mistaken. They seem to not have budged off of that. They even said that anything before that has some potential, but that it’s messy and no real opportunity for a big one. I understand that people would prefer to cash in on ANY type of potential, and that the earlier in February climo the better, but the sentiment that the advertised exciting period keeps getting shoved back seems wildly misunderstood and exaggerated.

Because they’re weenies

All my weenie eyes can see is that a formidable jump NW and this turns into a mega-cold, beautiful snowstorm. I don't know the pattern details like you guys, so I don't even know if it's realistic to think it could come NW, but man

100%. Even with the lack of a BIG storm, it actually feels like winter this January!

Yeah, I mean I get it, but I got 6 inches from the last storm and I'm still seeing a fair amount of it around 10 days later. Hard to complain about that. Now, the scraps will likely melt the next two days, but then hopefully get replenished on Sunday before our next extreme shot of cold.

That's not far from average for this time of year

The overall look is that we drop to around 20 degrees as the sun rises Monday morning, really don't rise at all during the day Monday. Then mid-teens for highs both Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the single digits. Likely at least 72 consecutive hours under 20 degrees.

Has anyone mentioned that the CMC has Baltimore at NEGATIVE 12 degrees next Thursday morning LOL

One thing the GFS and Euro agree on is that the high temp around Baltimore on Tuesday will be 12/13 degrees, and that we drop below 20 Monday morning and don't climb back to 20 until Thursday.

I've seen a few people saying the potential pattern around the 20th and beyond reminds them of 2013/2014. Can someone remind me of the storms we got during that time? I know there weren't any huge storms, but the winter overall was well above average. Was it a bunch of like 4-8 inch events?

I say this with all seriousness, do you really want the GFS showing big hits 7-10+ days out? Almost feels like the kiss of death recently. Just look for signs of cold air with storm activity in the vicinity at this range.

Driving from Baltimore City to Bel Air from the bars just now was treacherous. All roads were caved, not excluding 95. It was not the most fun drive, but made it safely.

Oh, I'll definitely let it go. It was just a quick thought I had in a weak moment and I thought if there was anywhere I might be comfortable sharing it, it would be in here. I'm on to the next period of interest.

Is anyone else kind of down that this next storm system is just going to graze by? I understand there are factors in play that are leading to this result. I just can't stop thinking about how a week ago all the talk was about how the second week of January was loaded with potential, with the big fear being that it would be too cold and lead to suppression. Now here we are, into the second week of January and we're about to have a significant system moving through the south, and we're not in some unbelievable, brutal cold airmass, yet...it's still not going to work out. I just keep thinking, man, if that thing could just hit the coast and ride up. Feels like this could've been the one to take this January from okay to GREAT. I'll continue to hope for around the 20th and beyond, but this one stings. Just ranting it out.

Oh okay. Well then in my backyard specifically, then!

I think we will have a really good idea by 12z tomorrow

Looking forward to waking up and seeing the official final totals around Baltimore/BWI. Fingers crossed for the first 6+ inch event in 9 years!

It's nonsense like this that gives the weather field a bad name to the general public