Steve25

I don’t know how you all feel about Webb. In my time following him, it seems like he’s been about as informed and accurate as anyone I’ve come across. So him saying this does feel like a massive sucker punch.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46 Well…

I usually ignore the nonsense hype machine that is Tony Pann, but his latest post has me intrigued about the AI GFS and Euro. What were they showing?

Yeah I’m just a tad to the northeast of you. Unless things drastically pick up in the next few hours, I won’t get more than an inch or two on cold surfaces. Pavement caved 2 and a half hours ago and still just has a light coating. It’s been snowing consistently but it’s been light and it’s seemingly just not really adding up much at all.

Snow started accumulating on pavement around 12:45 in Parkville. Just got back from a walk. Everything coated now. Not sure how much punch is left in this thing, but it was a nice scene out there.

Light coating on all cold surfaces now in Parkville. About to go walk

Trying to time when I should go out for my 1/2 hour walk in Parkville(just a hair north of Baltimore City). I want to try to time it with the heaviest bands.

It’s been all snow in Parkville for a good 20 minutes or so. Still 35 degrees so not really accumulating yet

I would happily accept all the warmth and rain events possible from the 17th to the 24th if it is followed by a wintry stretch from Christmas to New Years.

It would be pretty amusing if we come out of the cold period that was hyped up quite a bit with very little snow and then find a way to squeeze a legit snowstorm into this upcoming pattern

I don’t like Harbaugh. Lamar is having a rough season. Monken hasn’t inspired any confidence. But if we’re going to talk about the Ravens biggest problems, it starts and ends in the trenches. They have no pass rush(and they haven’t for YEARS, aside from the one year Mike Macdonald worked magic) and the offensive line is awful.

Tonight’s Euro is probably the worst case scenario in terms of cashing in on our December cold. There’s the mid-week clipper well to the north and then just a whole lot of nothing before a warm up leading into Christmas.

Euro has quite the rollercoaster on Thursday the 18th. Waking up to temperatures in the 50s with showers/thunderstorms. Dropping to freezing by the evening, ending with a burst of snow/ice, then dipping down into the teens by Friday morning.

Not a single post about ANY of the 00z runs of the models tonight. Just a massive snorefest.

It is pretty wild how big the city impact is on temps. I live 9 miles south of my parents, but I’m in Baltimore City and they’re just over the County line. It’s 37 degrees here and 31 degrees there.

90-100%. EPS smoking that good stuff today

I don’t hate this. Not as cold as some are advertising out there, but seems to like an active storm track

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but the end of December 2017 into January 2018 was one of the coldest stretches I can remember in recent history. I recall there was like a 10 day stretch where it didn’t get above freezing in Baltimore. Many nights in the single digits, many days that struggled to get out of the low 20s.

I was just going back and looking through the snow totals by month and year for BWI, and I notice that the official records show a trace of snow in August of 2015 and June of 2016. Does anyone remember these? Seems like it has to be a mistake.

BWI: 22.5” DCA: 18.0” IAD: 23.0” RIC: 19.5” SBY: 13.5”

I’d say our odds of being on the good luck side as opposed to the bad luck side are in our favor just because we’re due. 9 consecutive below average winters and nearly 10 years since the last 6+ inch snowfall in Baltimore(at least IMBY). Even being in an area where we need a lot of things to go right, this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of years. Things have to swing in our favor at some point.

I really haven’t seen any reputable sources say very snowy to the point where you wish we skip winter. I think the most reasonable outlook I’ve seen the most from people that aren’t fishing for clicks and trying to spread hype is that below normal temperature stretches are definitely on the table but that the most likely outcome during those stretches would be cold and dry. Seems like our chances of getting any significant snow events is fairly unlikely as the ingredients would have to come together in a way that’s not typical for the pattern we will have in place this winter. Another winter where we will likely need to nickel and dime our way during the cold stretches if we want to get close to average snowfall.

Might as well go 2017-2024. It’s not just since 2020 that things have been below average. It’s wild to think Baltimore hasn’t seen anything close to a real snowstorm in about 10 years, yet it feels like we’re punting on the odds of one occurring this upcoming winter. That’s not even negative thinking, it’s just realistic given the setup. Seems like even the most optimistic outlook would say we would need to piece together multiple different smaller events to get near or above average snowfall. I know a lot of us will still be hoping for a rare major snowstorm in a La Niña, and maybe the further we get away from January 2016, the more likely we get lucky with some funky setup just because we’re “due.” It just kind of sucks that hope is already pretty drained before we even get to November.

Forget us grown snow weenies, let it happen for the kids! 10 years since our last legitimate snowstorm. That means there are tons of youngsters born around here that have never even experienced a real snowstorm. Shame!