Steve25

I don’t hate this. Not as cold as some are advertising out there, but seems to like an active storm track

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but the end of December 2017 into January 2018 was one of the coldest stretches I can remember in recent history. I recall there was like a 10 day stretch where it didn’t get above freezing in Baltimore. Many nights in the single digits, many days that struggled to get out of the low 20s.

I was just going back and looking through the snow totals by month and year for BWI, and I notice that the official records show a trace of snow in August of 2015 and June of 2016. Does anyone remember these? Seems like it has to be a mistake.

BWI: 22.5” DCA: 18.0” IAD: 23.0” RIC: 19.5” SBY: 13.5”

I’d say our odds of being on the good luck side as opposed to the bad luck side are in our favor just because we’re due. 9 consecutive below average winters and nearly 10 years since the last 6+ inch snowfall in Baltimore(at least IMBY). Even being in an area where we need a lot of things to go right, this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of years. Things have to swing in our favor at some point.

I really haven’t seen any reputable sources say very snowy to the point where you wish we skip winter. I think the most reasonable outlook I’ve seen the most from people that aren’t fishing for clicks and trying to spread hype is that below normal temperature stretches are definitely on the table but that the most likely outcome during those stretches would be cold and dry. Seems like our chances of getting any significant snow events is fairly unlikely as the ingredients would have to come together in a way that’s not typical for the pattern we will have in place this winter. Another winter where we will likely need to nickel and dime our way during the cold stretches if we want to get close to average snowfall.

Might as well go 2017-2024. It’s not just since 2020 that things have been below average. It’s wild to think Baltimore hasn’t seen anything close to a real snowstorm in about 10 years, yet it feels like we’re punting on the odds of one occurring this upcoming winter. That’s not even negative thinking, it’s just realistic given the setup. Seems like even the most optimistic outlook would say we would need to piece together multiple different smaller events to get near or above average snowfall. I know a lot of us will still be hoping for a rare major snowstorm in a La Niña, and maybe the further we get away from January 2016, the more likely we get lucky with some funky setup just because we’re “due.” It just kind of sucks that hope is already pretty drained before we even get to November.

Forget us grown snow weenies, let it happen for the kids! 10 years since our last legitimate snowstorm. That means there are tons of youngsters born around here that have never even experienced a real snowstorm. Shame!

I’d say that was a very successful 12z suite. GFS and Icon became much more favorable. Euro and Ukie stayed very good. CMC was the only real downer, and I don’t think that’s worth stressing over.

Anarchy

Let’s be honest here, even if the Canadian showed a monster, everyone still would be living or dying on the Euro

Looks like it brings the best of accumulation east of the OP, but not drastically. Still great!

Hey, I work at DCA1! Sounds like a nightmare

BE STILL MY BEATING HEART!

I don’t think “pretty brutal” does this stretch of years service, specifically around Baltimore. I think a strong argument could be made that this is the worst stretch of winters BWI has ever had in the history of record keeping, in terms of snowfall. 8 consecutive winters with total snowfall under 19 inches coming into this winter. That has never been done before. BWI went 7 winters in a row one other time in history, but even during that stretch, they only were held to single digits once. We’ve been held to single digits 3 times in the past 8 years. One of those being literally our worst winter of all time, with the 0.2 inches in 2022/23. There are 8 and 9 year old children who live around here who have no clue what a legitimate snowstorm is like. We’ve had a couple storms around Baltimore during this stretch where if you happen to measure in the perfect spot, you may scratch the surface of 6 inches, but that’s been the max for 9+ years. To say we’re due for a big one at some point is an understatement.

The thing I don’t understand are the people saying the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. PSU, along with some of the other intelligent posters in here have been saying for a while now that the real opportunity for something significant will be around the 18th or later, if I’m not mistaken. They seem to not have budged off of that. They even said that anything before that has some potential, but that it’s messy and no real opportunity for a big one. I understand that people would prefer to cash in on ANY type of potential, and that the earlier in February climo the better, but the sentiment that the advertised exciting period keeps getting shoved back seems wildly misunderstood and exaggerated.

Because they’re weenies

All my weenie eyes can see is that a formidable jump NW and this turns into a mega-cold, beautiful snowstorm. I don't know the pattern details like you guys, so I don't even know if it's realistic to think it could come NW, but man

100%. Even with the lack of a BIG storm, it actually feels like winter this January!

Yeah, I mean I get it, but I got 6 inches from the last storm and I'm still seeing a fair amount of it around 10 days later. Hard to complain about that. Now, the scraps will likely melt the next two days, but then hopefully get replenished on Sunday before our next extreme shot of cold.

That's not far from average for this time of year

The overall look is that we drop to around 20 degrees as the sun rises Monday morning, really don't rise at all during the day Monday. Then mid-teens for highs both Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the single digits. Likely at least 72 consecutive hours under 20 degrees.

Has anyone mentioned that the CMC has Baltimore at NEGATIVE 12 degrees next Thursday morning LOL

One thing the GFS and Euro agree on is that the high temp around Baltimore on Tuesday will be 12/13 degrees, and that we drop below 20 Monday morning and don't climb back to 20 until Thursday.

I've seen a few people saying the potential pattern around the 20th and beyond reminds them of 2013/2014. Can someone remind me of the storms we got during that time? I know there weren't any huge storms, but the winter overall was well above average. Was it a bunch of like 4-8 inch events?