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deer

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Everything posted by deer

  1. Lot of yellow and orange returns in WV / SW VA
  2. Seeing MBY in eastern Prince William essentially be the jackpot for the last 2 days means the Leesburg/central MD guys are gonna eat well this storm
  3. I can see why normal people hate meteorologists
  4. chatGPT summary: Short Term Weather Forecast (Sunday Evening through Monday Night) Overview: A weather system is approaching from the west, consisting of a closed upper low and a surface low that will move eastward from the Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, then through the Ohio Valley, and overhead by Monday night. Precipitation Timeline: - Sunday Evening (6-9 PM): Precipitation will begin in the Alleghenies, central Shenandoah Valley, and central Virginia. - Late Evening (9 PM - Midnight): Northern Shenandoah Valley, DC/Baltimore Metros, and southern Maryland will see precipitation start. - After Midnight: Far northeast Maryland will begin to experience precipitation. Precipitation Type: - Initially, all precipitation will be snow, with intensity increasing quickly. - Expect snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour during the heaviest bands late Sunday night. Monday Morning: - Heavier precipitation will continue into Monday morning, tapering off late morning through afternoon as warm advection weakens. Monday Night: - The upper-level low will pass overhead, possibly leading to a secondary burst of moderate to heavy snow before precipitation winds down late evening/overnight. Model Guidance: - Bimodal Distribution: There is a split in model predictions regarding the system's track and precipitation amounts/types. - GFS/NAM Models: Suggest a more northern track with significant snowfall across the forecast area, potentially exceeding 6 inches in some areas. - Global Models (Euro, Canadian, UKMET, ICON): Indicate a southern QPF maximum, leading to reduced snowfall north of I-66/US-50, with advisory-level snowfall expected in those areas. Warnings: - A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for areas south of the I-66/US-50 corridor due to expected warning-level impacts from snow or a mix of snow and sleet/freezing rain. - A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for northern Maryland and parts of the WV Panhandle due to uncertainty in precipitation amounts, which could range from advisory to warning levels. Conclusion: Monitor updates as the situation evolves, especially overnight after new guidance becomes available.
  5. Seems like a hold for most of the area from 06z
  6. 90 people in the storm thread tonight!
  7. When I went to take a dump it was not snowing. Came out of the bathroom and the sky is ripping
  8. I told myself this year I wasnt looking at this board until I saw snow falling from the sky. Surely showing up 2 days before our first good region-wide chance wont jinx anything! XD
  9. 4/30 with a foot+ for DC and very nearly a 5th. That's hot
  10. 12/11: 0.5" 1/15-1/16: 2.8" 1/19: 3.0" Total: 6.3"
  11. Still got some flurries going around 2.75" on the deck, spotter totals will probably be around 3" 5" in snow depth!
  12. Accumulating again on my cleared areas HRRR says it'll be done here in the next hour or so 2.5"
  13. Accumulation has been hard to come by here as well for the last 2 hours or so, even with decent returns. Would need to be in the yellows me thinks
  14. Lighter green returns producing nice sized flakes in Lake Ridge. ~2.25"
  15. Just watched the back building start over Manassas, love to see it
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