chatGPT summary:
Short Term Weather Forecast (Sunday Evening through Monday Night)
Overview:
A weather system is approaching from the west, consisting of a closed upper low and a surface low that will move eastward from the Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, then through the Ohio Valley, and overhead by Monday night.
Precipitation Timeline:
- Sunday Evening (6-9 PM): Precipitation will begin in the Alleghenies, central Shenandoah Valley, and central Virginia.
- Late Evening (9 PM - Midnight): Northern Shenandoah Valley, DC/Baltimore Metros, and southern Maryland will see precipitation start.
- After Midnight: Far northeast Maryland will begin to experience precipitation.
Precipitation Type:
- Initially, all precipitation will be snow, with intensity increasing quickly.
- Expect snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour during the heaviest bands late Sunday night.
Monday Morning:
- Heavier precipitation will continue into Monday morning, tapering off late morning through afternoon as warm advection weakens.
Monday Night:
- The upper-level low will pass overhead, possibly leading to a secondary burst of moderate to heavy snow before precipitation winds down late evening/overnight.
Model Guidance:
- Bimodal Distribution: There is a split in model predictions regarding the system's track and precipitation amounts/types.
- GFS/NAM Models: Suggest a more northern track with significant snowfall across the forecast area, potentially exceeding 6 inches in some areas.
- Global Models (Euro, Canadian, UKMET, ICON): Indicate a southern QPF maximum, leading to reduced snowfall north of I-66/US-50, with advisory-level snowfall expected in those areas.
Warnings:
- A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for areas south of the I-66/US-50 corridor due to expected warning-level impacts from snow or a mix of snow and sleet/freezing rain.
- A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for northern Maryland and parts of the WV Panhandle due to uncertainty in precipitation amounts, which could range from advisory to warning levels.
Conclusion:
Monitor updates as the situation evolves, especially overnight after new guidance becomes available.