Weather Will

WB 6Z NBM nice uptick overnight compared to 0Z. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.

You definitely tried to kill it though I will take what is being forecasted in a heartbeat….

My first thread and I did not kill the storm!!!

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun- 357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland as well as portions of northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow between 5 and 7 AM early Saturday morning. The steadiest snow will be through midday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may

WB 6Z 3K NAM….. first time in awhile everything trending in the right direction inside 24 hours….

WB 3K NAM; Maybe I need to start posting the snow maps for next January…

WB 12Z EURO is noticeably drier this run….we do find a variety of ways to fail in these parts….

WB 12Z GFS: At 10 an, when GFS shows sleet, all levels seem below freezing? Warm layer there somewhere EURO is not seeing….

12Z WB 3K NAM

New thread is there… fingers crossed that everyone has a wintry Saturday!!!

Let’s keep this thread only about the Saturday threat….

I actually have taken to heart the criticism on the snow maps. So I have refined my snow map criteria to within 5 days, and whether temps actually support it. With this storm I am just trying to post the depth maps since temps don’t support snow sticking without heavy rates before mid to late morning and the snow will be falling on wet, soggy ground. If I get 2 inches and any coverage on the roads I will score it a win in SW Frederick County.

If the 12Z runs hold course, I would like to start a thread…. Any objections?

National Model Blend SREF

WB 9Z NMB: note below freezing 10 am NW burbs

Possible in the higher elevations and MD/PA border north east of the mountains.

WB 6Z EURO. Note temps now fall below freezing at noon rather than 1 in NW suburbs; back at 12Z…

WB 0Z EPS. After the weekend wintry shot, temps rebound to above normal and on the dry side. Gardening weather…

1pm Sat WB 6Z 3K NAM: all the models overnight and so far this am moved toward the EURO solution. (Faster transition to wintry precip in NW zones)

I see it…but GFS is more progressive.

A closer look at the EURO shows temps going below freezing about 1 pm Saturday in NW suburbs which is actually about the same time as the GFS but on the EURO it is still snowing. Note that the EURO snow depth map is actually much less impressive.

WB 18Z…. Saturday storm will decide which global model gets the crown going into next season….

WB 18Z EURO….model battle!!!

WB 18Z GEFS; know you aren’t supposed to use ensembles within 3 days….

Updated….:)