Disappointed that I let myself get sucked in by the global models which are not worth a grain of salt outside 5 days. I will only post ensembles outside 5 days moving forward. Too much hype and false hope otherwise....
GEFS is too progressive, too far east, but it is deepening the tough next weekend....not done adjusting yet....we will see, at least we are in the stadium....WB 12Z yesterday compared to 6Z today at Day 10.
Big difference between EURO and GFS with MJO in terms of amplitude into Phase 6 for Christmas week. If the GFS is correct, would think it will be on the warmer side. If EURO is correct, maybe we can still thread the needle with a storm being cold enough...
Only have about a mile drive to the train station but the fog is horrible if you are an early commuter. Stay safe out there, or better yet if you have a long driving commute work from home today if you can. May be some school delays....
Models from two weeks ago did a good job predicting an unsettled period for this week; but the cold air was just a tease...hopefully the pattern reload after the holidays will be colder as depicted by the current extended guidance. As we get into January, it looks colder and wet. WB extended EPS from yesterday.
Beautiful day to hit the Queenstown Outlets on the shore and Fisherman's Inn for crab imperial afterwards. Great trip and perfect weather for it!!! Sunny, mild, and light winds....