Weather Will

I updated the map. There are more members with heavier rain!

WB 0Z GEFS still lot of uncertainty on Imelda to be location and intensity. There are a few members that bring heavy rain to DMV.(some of the rain shown is from the weekend)

0Z Can is also a miss. Rain does not even get to Norfolk....

WB OZ ICON has Imelda Jo be approach SC coast but then spins out to sea. Rain only makes it into SE VA.

18Z AI ensemble does not support its global solution to stall for a few days and then move northward.

WB 18Z EPS is actually a tick north compared to 12Z.

Stalls off SC for several days first...WB 18Z AI.

18Z AI solution brings it north by the end of the week.

If it were winter...

WB 18Z EURO: so it will be interesting to see the adjustment if any over the next few days.

WB 18Z EURO for Saturday

WB 18Z tracks.

Saturday looks wet if you miss out today....WB 18Z GEFS precipitation totals for Saturday.

WB 18Z GFS 11pm Monday 5am Tuesday 11 am Tuesday 5pm Tuesday Rain totals 2pm Wed.

NHC at 2pm: Disturbance 1: 90% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025... Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region during the next couple of days. While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

WB 12Z ensembles for Tuesday at 12Z. GEFS ,CMC, Euro, and AI.

At 12Z EURO has Imelda to be hitting SC coast and then stalling out keeping heaviest rain south of DC. (48 hour precip totals for midweek.

At 12Z AI has Imelda to be approaching SC coast and then swirls around and heads north brushing the coastal areas from Hatteras northward.

ICON and Canadian at 12Z do the Fujiwhara and twirl the system(Imelda to be) around Humberto and out to sea.

WB 6Z tracks.

WB 18Z AI and EPS ensemble at Day 6

Nice steady rain...

WB 6Z ATCF tracks for 94L.

WB 18Z EURO and AI Day 6 ensembles.

MJO on EURO made a shift toward favorable phase 2 next week, just in time for tropical development....