I'm no expert, but there is a lot of confusion in this thread. It is my understanding that we want the confluence to shift NE so the low does not get torn apart but the low must also track across VA not southern NC.
WB 12Z NAM, watching the trends on the confluence shifting NE. Hour 84 at 12Z compared to hour 78 at 18Z. Continues to tick NE a little faster which is good.