Weather Will

WB NBM has trended down over its last few runs...

After the winter disaster, seeing the 3K NAM so far west is a red flag but the Canadian both GDPS & RDPS, EURO, and ICON are also still showing widespread 2 plus inches of rain..

WB 6Z 3K NAM still is west of the other models....

WB 0Z 3K NAM ticked further West compared to 18Z.

WB 18Z 3K NAM has winds approaching 50 too (still moving N at hour 60)

WB 18Z EURO.... would wind gusts of 50 shut the Bay Bridge down?

Sorry if this should be banter, but in OC and trying to figure out if I should leave before my last day on Friday. Actually not really worried about the shore but more about traveling home to Brunswick on Friday....thoughts?

Nice write-up by NWS Sterling. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The remnant low pressure system of TC Debby is likely to move across the area sometime Friday into Friday night. Aloft, an approaching upper trough begins to pull northward the mid-level vorticity signature of Debby, while also interacting with a stalled frontal boundary over the area. Deep tropical moisture, with PWATs well over 2.2-2.4", surge into the area on strengthening low-level southerly flow. The area is going to be near the favorable right-entrance region of an upper level jet streak over the far easter Great Lakes. In addition, strong divergence is noted upstream of the mid-level vort max of remnant TC Debby. These conditions should cause the remnant surface to low to deepens as it moves northeast through the area, which in turn is likely to increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gale force winds over the waters. Stable temperatures in this deeply saturated environment will be mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s, with small diurnal variability. Heavy Rainfall / Flash Flooding Threat: At the very least, the remnants of TC Debby are likely to bring beneficial rainfall to most of the area, especially those west of the Blue Ridge where an Extreme Drought is ongoing. Most of this rain is expected to fall over a 36-48 hour period starting Thursday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4" are likely, with isolated higher amounts of 6" possible. This does not take into account any localized heavy rain that may occur Wednesday as the stalled front sags south into our area. A Flood Watch is likely to be issued for most of the area over the next 24 hours as it becomes more clear where the heaviest rain will occur. This rain is likely to produce scattered instances of flash flooding, mainly in urban centers. Repeated rounds of heavy rain and/or a training band of heavy rain could result in significant flash flooding if it occurs over an urban area. Continue to monitor the weather as the forecast becomes more certain in the days ahead. Tornado Threat: A tornado threat could develop over parts of the area sometime on Friday, most likely during peak heating in the afternoon to early evening. The greatest threat looks to be along and east of US-15. Now this threat is very conditional, and based on where the exact track of the surface low. Aloft, a LLJ on the eastern side of the surface low brings in 40-50KT of SSE/S flow above steady ESE/SE winds at the surface. Long, curved hodographs are possible, with very high low-level SRH values progged in some of the model guidance. The remnants of TC Debby are absorbed by a large upper trough to our north and quickly speed away from the area. Lingering showers and thunderstorms on the backside of the system quickly move out from west to east Saturday morning. Most of the area should be dry come Saturday afternoon. Surface high pressure builds in Saturday night into the start of next week. Upper troughing continues across much of the Great Lakes to Northeast CONUS into next week. Dry conditions expected Sunday and Monday, with below normal highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows in the 60s.

WB 15Z NBM compared to 6Z yesterday. Clear tick west but widespread welcome rain increasingly likely!!!!

WB 6Z EPS

Looking beyond Debby...WB EPS for mid month.

WB 6Z EURO. Not over yet at end of run.

WB 6Z GEFS: 2 inch prob. Or more increasing for NW zones.

Beautiful am in OC today, perhaps the last good day before I head back....

Sorry, just fixed it....

WB 18Z GEFS

WB 12Z EURO.

Latest 6Z ICON and GFS. Note: ICON clears rain out Friday evening. GFS a day later. I will take either one....

WB 6Z GFS....low adjustment; finally in sync with the other models.

WB 0Z EURO now has the brutal cutoff for NW burbs.

WB 18Z Day 5 GFS and ICON

WB 18Z GFS at Day 4 compared to ICON

WB 18Z ICON: not over yet....at end of run.

WB 12Z ICON, western suburbs remain in drought conditions.

WB 6Z EURO brings rain Tuesday evening from frontal passage. Rain over Norfolk area is from Debby. Trend over the last 24 hours has shifted that shield of rain SE of DMV for later this week.