Weather Will

Latest from NWS Sterling SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Rain showers and the isolated thunderstorm threat will continue and likely spread north and east during the day Tuesday as the low pressure system moves into the western Carolinas and becomes nearly stationary. Rain showers and isolated thunder could linger Tuesday night through midweek, including the Wednesday night timeframe. Average rain amounts Monday night through Wednesday night could average one half to one inch across the northern 2/3rds of the region, while the southern 1/3rd, including along and east of the Blue Ridge could encounter rain amounts in the one and a half to as much as 3 inches of rain. Local amounts could reach up to 5 or 6 inches of rain depending on the model and the track and movement of the low pressure system. A lot may change within the forecast as the forecast track becomes more apparent. Continue to monitor our forecast locally as well as the National Hurricane Center. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Uncertainty remains high for the extended period due to a blocky upper level pattern. For Thursday and Friday, any remnant of the previous coastal low will be weakened if not dissipated, and the mid/upper low may also weaken and open into a trough. However, secondary low pressure development could take place off the coast. Shower chances will persist through this period thanks to the upper trough, but may be comparably lower Friday as forcing weakens and the trough axis perhaps aligning just east of the area. Temperatures will be near normal. For Saturday and Sunday, ridging will amplify northwest of the area while a trough moves across the Canadian Maritimes. This combination may result in another upper low closing off over the southeast US. At the surface, a backdoor front will push toward the region, but lose definition as it encounters a staunch coastal front along the southeast coast. Strong high pressure over New England may result in a good southward push however. It`s still unclear whether drier air will be able to work into the area behind the front, or if clouds and continued light rain chances persist. Temperatures will trend below normal however.

Well we just got NAM'D....what could possibly go wrong now? WB 6Z NAM (rain moves in by Tuesday evening)

Yup.... flip flop city...

WB 18Z GFS and EURO. Let's see which model is closer to being correct when we tally the totals early Thursday..

WB 12Z globals thru day 4. Note first slug of moisture misses to the south. Most of the Euro is overnight Tuesday into Wed....

WB 0Z ensemble precipitation totals through Day 8. All the globals onboard right now for a widespread soaking rain event.

Well , well EURO caved to GFS today. WB 18Z control v. 0Z.

I would also say that the EURO does not have a low, at least not as strong as the GFS.

WB 6Z GFS and 0Z EURO... much different tracks through Day 5.

WB 12Z EPS through next week, some hits and some misses. We know how this has been playing out....

Models have teased a big rainstorm numerous times this summer... WB 18Z GEFS has a lot of dry members for next week.

WB 12Z EPS. Great outdoor weather over the next week...

WB 12Z GFS, quiet, dry, seasonable the next 10 days in Mid Atlantic....

Rain, light but perfect for dethatched, aerated over seeded lawn this week. I approve.....

I see the experts appear dumbfounded by the tropics. Models are broken, we are in uncharted territory. Maybe the random chaos will break our way this winter. I guess we will find out!

Another long season of miserable tracking ahead!!!!!

WB 18Z GFS....another storm whiffs....

WB 18Z GFS easterly flow off Atlantic on Friday and then a cold front on Saturday. Drought relief if it verifies....

WB 6Z GEFS maybe another wet Saturday on tap.... GFS likes a storm for now...

Over half inch in Brunswick. Just what my new plants needed!!!

WB 19Z HRRR

WB 17Z HRRR take it in a heartbeat... hope it verifies.

If we get arctic air in Canada we will get a few chances....maybe we will have some luck this year.

JB on WB came out with his winter outlook and it is horrible for the East.... so let's hope he is wrong again about this winter!!!!

Light rain, better than nothing.