Weather Will

Frederick County, MD also has a Winter Storm Watch 7pm Sunday-7:00am Monday.

One of the things I like to watch as we approach the short range is how the 3K NAM lines up with the globals. Watch the NAM over the next several runs and compare to the EURO/GFS. It did a nice job with today's system. (MAP is from WEATHERBELL. It seems it lets me copy the American maps, but Mods let me know if I should not post. Thanks.) Looking at the 850s, Using this as a guide, it would appear the rain/snow line will be North of 70 and SW of North Western Montgomery, Western Howard, and Western Fairfax.

If the King moves the Rain/Snow line toward I-95, I will happily take the 12z runs....

Northern Frederick, Carroll due ok this run as well. We need another 30-50 mile shift.

ICON has been consistent with itself, but so have the other models. Let's see if the GFS twins are as stubborn with their Northern tracks.

18Z NAM is horrible verbatim for everyone in our forum but being the optimist there is a silver lining. There are two lows. One right about where we would want it that travels along the NV/VA line and another further North that travels through northern WV and off the coast. Looks weird but if the southern low track were to verify without the northern low, we would be in business. (I know it is the NAM at 84 hours.)

Sterling NWS did a nice write up on the late weekend Not much change in the 12z guidance in regards to the storm that will impact the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. A potent shortage will eject out of the southwestern US into the southern Plains saturday night into Sunday morning, inducing cyclogenesis over Texas Sunday morning. Additionally, a shortwave rotating around a Canadian upper low will swing a trough out of Canada through the Great Lakes at roughly the same time. These two systems look to phase and bring the surface low up the east coast, however the exact track of this low is still a bit uncertain, though guidance seems to be coming to some sort of a consensus. Guidance has been trending slightly north over the past several runs it seems. The 12z GFS and Canadian deterministic runs seems to continue that trend, albeit slightly. Both are still slightly farther south compared to the 00z European run. So, what this means is that much of the area, especially along I-95 and southeast, will see a plain cold rain. However, north and west of I-95 is still a bit uncertain. Depending on where the low tracks, these areas could see some snow, or some rain/snow mix type of scenario. The 12z run of the GEFS ensembles lights up eastern WV and western/north-central MD with snow, so that seems to be the focus for wintry precipitation at this time. Given the lack of a blocking surface high to the north to funnel in cold air at the surface, would think this will be a rain or snow event primarily, and predicting exactly where that line sets up several days out is just not going to be accurate. So, have kept a fairly large area of rain/snow mix north and west of I-95, with all snow in the farthest northwest portions of the CWA. So, though some things are becoming more clear, there are still many question marks when it comes to northern VA, eastern WV and western/central MD. If there is enough moisture left on the back edge of the system, when cold air wraps back around, could see some snow across the entire area, but likely wouldn`t amount to much.

Thanks.

Are the models already completely accounting for the low blowing up off of the coast on Saturday in terms of where the next low will track? I guess what I am asking is what factors can shift the low to track another 50 miles south from West to east (arctic high pressing more, slightly stronger Sat coastal low?)

I posted in the wrong thread. Agree there are slight improvements. My nonexpert comparison of 0z v. 12z EURO using 6z Monday as a reference point. Slight improvements. The low is centered over PAX River rather than SE PA. There is a heavier snow band across NW MD-thru North Central MD. If there is another 30-50 mile shift SE over the next day there will be a lot of happy people.

Snowing in Brunswick. Light dusting everywhere. 30.

OPM has a new policy. Federal employees no longer get snow days or weather and safety leave as it is now called. We must either take personal leave or telework.

MARC Brunswick line canceled. Penn and Camden on holiday schedule. Guess the state of MD thinks it will be pretty bad tomorrow

Well, pleasantly surprised....snow did not amount to anything after sunrise until the last half hour. Side roads and driveway covered again! About .25 inch and 30 degrees.

Agree completely. Ending in SW. for example, moving NE of ChArlottsville. Al

About 6 inches here and I have shoveled. About over here. Looking at the radar I will be pleasantly surprised if it has not stopped snowing west of 95 by noon.

33/still flurries but every flake sticking to deck

34/flurries