Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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EURO 12z is south this run....light snow breaking out Saturday am.
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I have an idea....maybe we could start an American Weather forum Mid Atlantic winter storm index for 0-5 days out and 6 days or more out. It would make it easier to know what our more experienced forum members think of the pattern potential. “0” for torch and “10” for something that would make even Ji happy. For example, currently it would be “0” for the next 5 days.
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6z GFS CAD not as deep as Oz for next weekend. The low tracks for EURO and GFS look similar so it will be interesting to see which model has a better handle on temperature profiles for next weekend.
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While Oz EURO is still Dr. No for next weekend, EPS shows slight improvement for next weekend. Hope it caves to GFS/ GEFS.
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I would love to see a winter storm on MLK weekend, but factors working against us include a week of mild weather making ground temperatures suspect to support an ice event. Also, neither 12z EURO or EPS temps currently support a front end winter thump. However, there are below freezing temps not too far away, in south central and western PA. 8 days away Is too far away to write it off but I still think it is an uphill battle.
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I stand corrected. Although I thought EPS at 12z was not showing much until after the weekend. Will have to go look again.
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The force is strong...GFS says don’t give up on the MLK weekend storm yet.
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EPS does not seem impressed with next weekend, But snow mean increases with some big hits the week of January 20. Patience will be needed for another week. WB EPS 15 day mean.
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I am sure it will shock everyone that JB Is on board for the flip. I actually enjoyed his videos today where he discussed the similarities to 1978, the MJO moving to more favorable phases, and an interesting discussion about the recent deluge of rain in Israel like 1978.
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That is all I meant. Still looks like we flip to a colder stormier pattern Next weekend. That does not guarantee snow storms but puts us back in the game. There is strong consensus in the modeling that there are No threats before MLK weekend. Enjoy the Outdoors this weekend. Might turn back on the water and wash the car. That will guarantee bad weather next weekend!
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Euro 0z and GFS 6z are north for MLK weekend storm threat. Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction. Will check GEFS when it comes out.
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Agreed. Threat about 9 days away now....all you can ask for is a chance....there are no guarantees nine days out even if all of the indices line up.
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I would rather have cold and dry then wet and warm. Let the chips fall where they may. A little luck is needed. Don't think the models factor that in yet, which is why this hobby is fun.
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Still must be dreaming on my way to work...WB GFS Clown Map Day 13....everyone can be happy for 6 hours.
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Brunswick- home about 2.5 inches. Streets a little slushy. Nice start to the year. Very light snow about over.
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Brunswick line at Barnesville
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On way to Barnesville: ground covered. Very scenic. Makes the almost 3 hour commute today home worth while.
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Brunswick line: Boyds: parking lot starting to cave in moderate snow
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Brunswick line: Germantown: Light snow/ dusting on grass/ cars/roofs. Finally looks like winter! Sidewalks starting to cave.
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Brunswick line: Gaithersburg: light snow/ light accumulation on grass/ rooftops/ cars.
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Brunswick line: as i head North of Rockville, some light accumulation on trees and parked cars.
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Brunswick Line: Rockville: looks like mostly snow but no accumulation.
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Brunswick Line: Garrett Park: rain/snow mix
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Brunswick Line Silver Spring: rain but coming down harder.
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Light rain outside the rail yard, Union Station, DC
