WB DAY 10 500MB anomalies.....hmmm.....with a little more blocking over Greenland, a little more ridging over the west coast, and a slightly deeper trough in the east we are in business...now everyone can tell me why I am wrong.
WB 12z GEFS has about 40% of it Members with perfectly acceptable solutions for NEXT weekend. At least it is not looking like a torch for next weekend.
Deep breathing helps....we still have about 6 weeks to track. Everyone is frustrated. Harsh reality is that the likelihood of this weekend being anything significant snow wise anywhere in the DMV has no more than a 10 percent chance based on the 6Z EPS and GEFS.
Hilarious..... I am showing my age. This was an expression used by Dick Motta when the Washington Bullets won the NBA Championship in 1978. I guess someone will move this to Banter but we are between model runs....I will sing an opera if we get a 6 inch storm this year.
Ok....don’t look at the GEFS WB Day 16 prob. if it annoys you, but its the highest its been in awhile if not all winter. I dare say above climo average...now see if it is a trend or blip.
They are serving a purpose though...they have been telling us our chances of snow are not good...and guess what...they havent been. When/if the pattern gets better those maps will show a better probability. Just because its depressing to see that our chances suck everyday doesn't make the information useless. EXACTLY WHY I SHOW THEM.....thanks PSU.