Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south.
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There are a couple of EPS members that bring a shot of snow over us and even to our south. So maybe something will pop up before the end of the month. Looking casually but not expecting anything at this point.
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WB EPS at the end of run. At least the SE ridge is breaking down. NAO going to neutral perhaps. Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening. I have not given up on March yet.
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Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February. Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm. But I would not bet the ranch on it.
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Only One Member brings snow late week.
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No.....no snow this work week looking at 6Z EPS.
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Folks, this winter has proven that if The King is not on board forget about it. Until or if its look improves don’t overthink or get false hopes looking at the Goofus.
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WB 0z EPS a disaster. Nothing different thru the 23rd. The miracle is that It snowed hard for 20 minutes last night so I have snow covering my lawn on my birthday. God loves me and I am at peace with this winter now. Hope everyone gets a snow band before April 1.
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Snow!!!!! More than I have received in forever, Happy Birthday to me!!! Had an early dinner....Temp 36 to 32 on way home and ran into a band of legitimate snow.
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12Z EPS Control likes a storm in 2 weeks so not giving up hope yet. About 6 weeks and counting.
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12Z EPS has only 2/50 Members showing a nice hit for late next week. Until if/when it improves, not even remotely optimistic.
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It is not awful for the NW suburbs. But I would love a shift 50 SE rather than further NW so everyone is in the game.
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WB GEFS thru Day 7. Highest probability I have seen for 3 inches or more in recent memory for NW suburbs. BUT one run, lets see if the probs. hold over the weekend and if EPS gets on board.
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WB 18Z GEFS thru end of run.
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WB 12Z CMS AO Ensemble....Hope this is correct. Game changer.
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WB 12Z EPS.....Late next week and beyond we will hopefully have some tracking to do.
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Agreed...much further South for the Day 7-8 threat
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12Z GEFS thru DAY 8...I found the GFS OP for late next week intriguing...
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I will look at 12z GEFS for next week when it is that far out.
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My recollection is that the 80-90% was a one run GEFS forecast for the entire 16 day period. I never saw a probability map under 5 days showing those percentages. I don't think that either EPS or GEFS ever had a high percentage for 3 inches or more for this weekend's event.
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Agreed....EURO teleconnection ensembles thru 2/20 stink (with the exception of a weak dip in EPO, but that is not enough.) We wait to see If there is a change in the last week of February into March.
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6Z GEFS is abysmal for the entire run.. No pictures for awhile. Some would go apoplectic.
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Not a flake on 6Z ICON or GFS for weekend. It's over, Grover.
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WB 0z EPS for weekend. Dream about 38. Our 2 percent chance....
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WB 0z EURO says what snow through Day 10...if it makes anyone feel better the entire megalopolis is a disaster. Back to chasing unicorns.
