Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB EPS signals a chance small 20% or less chances starting late next week into the first week of March. The control also has a storm for early March.
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WB 12Z GEFS.....period to watch remains end of February into the first week of March. (The only area showing prob. before then is around SE VA for late this week.
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WB 6z EURO. No snow this work week. T minus about 4 weeks and counting.
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I would argue that the prob snow maps have been accurate. They have never trended above 50% for 3 inches or more all winter inside of five days and it has not snowed. During the 15 day ensemble period still no high probs of snow. I completely agree that snow maps don’t tell us anything about the pattern itself.
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Hug WB 6z GEFS P3 for 6 hours for long range hope.
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WB GFS Day 16. Appears to be the second threat window and perhaps the last as we lose the favorable EPO around this time.
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WB 0z EPS end of next week which is the first period I thought had a chance if the trough can dig deeper on the East coast. Not sure if that is possible without more ridging out west. Keep expectations very low.
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WB 18z GEFS...hits are not this week.
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I just don’t see it for the DMV except SE VA. Watch the EURO. If it changes, I will start believing.
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Not true at all...uptick in snow in southern and central va day 14 and 15 Isn’t most of that for the late week NC storm?
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WB 12z EPS thru Day 15. No changes. Nada.
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WB 12Z GEFS Mean Next Friday and snow map 28th thru 4th.
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WB 6Z GEFS. Looks like two possible shots. One next weekend, if that trough ends up deeper on the east coast, and then our last shot perhaps after Day 16. Those are the two periods that I am watching with some interest to see if the snow prob maps will respond.
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WB 6Z GFS. Friday is not showing any legs.
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WB 0z...nothing to be excited about yet. I will begin to lose hope by the end of this weekend if there are no upticks in these maps Our little bit of help from EPO and neutral PNA by the end of the week may not be enough with such a hostile AO and NAO.
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One chance is better than 0. We will need some luck without other indices helping. End of February, first few days of March is our chance.
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Saw that. In fairness to him though, has admitted the WB temp forecast for winter was wrong..
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WB 12Z EPS continues to show pattern changes toward end of February/ early March. No strong signals for any snow yet.
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0z EPS continues to show EPO going neutral to negative toward end of month into March . Whether it will have any effect on our snowless winter TBD. No specific threats showing up yet.
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WB EPS 12Z. Looks increasingly likely that we punt the rest of February as expected. Next 10 days or so looks drier overall. I guess the EPO forecast is our hope for the changes up top.
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18Z GEFS 16 Days. Had to post it...this will verify!!!
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12Z EPS.....still holding serve on the EPO going negative toward the end of the month.
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WB 12Z EPS...very quiet through February in the snow maps. Only 2 of 50 Members show anything. Looks like we will be going into the 4th quarter with no time outs left (March.)
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I am saying that I won’t give much credence to what other models are showing until the EURO shows it too.
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Dr. No 12Z says go back to work for late next week.
