Weather Will

WB 3k NAM Sleet/freezing rain signing off...GN

WB 0z 3k NAM at 19z snowfall

3k NAM WB 0Z at 13z

Thanks for the positive vibe.  We need it.  Perhaps the mood will improve with a wintry scene tomorrow.

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In fairness the gefs was better day 10-15 but dry. But closer to workable. It was a better trend fwiw. 

Unfortunately, this suns up the the long range rather sadly. 18Z GFS WB prob of 3 inches or more thru DAY forever (16)

WB 18Z GFS Winter Precip maps.

18Z 3K NAM WB Winter Precip

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

GFS looked like a much more significant winter event than the Euro.

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

GFS looked like a much more significant winter event than the Euro.

EURO had less snow but more sleet and freezing rain than GFS.  The mesoscale models basically have little precipitation of any kind.

E

15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's hard to ignore the 3K NAM and Euro when they are on the same page.

EURO and GFS are on the same page.  Mesoscale models like NAM and RGEM are not buying the event.

I notice the RGEM is not enthusiastic either so seems like a red flag.

So do the mesoscale models have a track record of forecasting lift better than the globals?

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's not the dry air- that could actually help if the front end precip came in hot and heavy. If the best lift is delayed(or mostly north),  the strong warming aloft/retreating cold air mass means time is not on your side.

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

This has been a nonevent for days.

You may be right.  But I got up at 345 to catch a train that is now an hour late because of a tree blown down on the track so I decided to look at the maps.

So my question to the experts is whether the NAM is a red flag that the dry cold air will make this a nonevent?

NWS Official Maps

6z WB GFS precip maps.  Still shows icy mess for North and West suburbs of DC.  Still NE MD bullseye of light snow accumulation before changeover to ice there.

3k WB 6z NAM says enjoy a couple showers, sleet pellets and flurries.  Moisture starved.

WB EPS Probability of 3 inches or more.   For DMV, EPS says we wait until the end of the month for our next bout of winter precip after this weekend.

WB EURO 0Z Winter Precip.  Icing event in NW DC suburbs looking likely after about an inch of snow.  Increased on EURO this run.

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before)

I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks!  Point is...we've been here before!

I have been thinking about this....The first big storm I remember is 1978, when I was 10.  Going years without a big snowstorm is nothing new around here.  09-10 was a miracle.

WB 18z GFS Winter Precip 

12Z EURO WB Winter Precip. Maps.

WB 12Z GFS Winter Precip. Maps.  Much better than the NAM.  Congrats to my friends in NE MD.

I am not posting the 12K NAM or 3K NAM. Not worth it....as indicated above it's a bummer all around.  Although I really don't want ice and power outages.

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Isnt it 99% always day 10+ though? 

Seems that way.  I like the probability maps because it helps me to see if there are any trends developing Or not as the case this winter for DMV snow threat.

36 minutes ago, mappy said:

Euro laughs at our talk of ice (unless you’re well west) and gives us a light rainy chilly day

True, but I live in west...Sw of Frederick.  WB EURO 0z. Note also there is nothing of consequence on the EURO snow or sleet maps.