Weather Will

Congrats to the DC and SE folks on 12z GFS.  We usually don’t do complicated well so we will see.

6z GFS is back to a coastal but not cold enough scenario.  WB too slow so TT map.  Back to sleep.

As usual, nice writeup by NWS Sterling:

Two strong cyclogenesis events will occur in the poleward exit
region of the North Pacific Jet during the Tuesday through Thursday
time period. These cyclogenesis events will lead to strong
ridgebuilding downstream across the western CONUS, while also
encouraging a shortwave to dig southward toward TX/Northern Mexico
by late Thursday into Friday. Multiple additional disturbances will
descend down the front side of the developing ridge and interact
with the aforementioned shortwave. The result of interactions
between these disturbances remains highly uncertain. Possibilities
range from phasing between the disturbances, development of a deep
longwave trough, and the formation of a coastal low, to a cutoff
shortwave suppressed well to our south, with predominantly dry
conditions. With significant spread in both deterministic and
ensemble guidance, confidence in any given solution is very low at
this time, with both timing and amount of precipitation in the late
week/weekend period very much up in the air.

WB GFS 0z:  NADA

What I find interesting are the GEFS hits to the South of us in the 10 Day plus range.  That is new so maybe the pattern is changing?

I lived along 95 for 50 years....now I have a two hour commute to DC.  I will hope for snow with the cows.  Move NW.  I will hug GEFS WB P 17 for everyone.

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

what is WB? Is that model?

I am just attributing the maps to Weatherbell.

18z GFS WB

NW folks hug P6 from GEFS 12Z

WB 12 z GEFS mean took a jog east for next weekend.

WB 12z EURO for Sunday 12z

WB EPS Prob map thru Day 15

0z WB EPS mean

WB 0z EPS Control

WB 0z EURO....southern slider

41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d bet that you could stat any year, any 16 day window from mid December to mid February and you would get a 30-40% chance of a 3” snow.

I use it for trends.  Over the last month, the probs have been lower, but agree until we see it going up under 5 days, it does not mean it is going to snow.

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s always the storm after the storm.  

I don’t remember GEFS ever liking next weekend’s storm. EPS is not enthusiastic either.  Look- the 12Z EURO op. had a good to great track for us to thread the needle with marginal cold air.  Trend or fluke?  We will find out.

18z GEFS Probability maps as said above not liking  next weekend but honking in the later period.

WB GFS 18z. EURO and GFS models are very close this far out.  You have to smell the rain to get the best snows.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. 

WB EPS 12Z.  As Bob describes, while under 9 days, operation is not a lock solution yet but my fingers are crossed.

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS looks active. Close to being cold enough. I’d actually prefer a look that’s close but not quite vs big hits because we know the big hit solutions usually change to nfw. I know it means that our cherished snowfall maps and snow probability maps don’t look nice and shiny but it doesn’t mean that we are in a hopeless situation.

Agreed....that is why I keep saying that we need a little luck.  But also remember close only counts when playing horseshoes.

6z WB GEFS is worse.  The snow shield is strengthening over DC proper.

0Z EPS WB. Still chasing stars Day 10 plus.  Even those odds don’t look so hot.

18z WB GEFS probability 3 inches or more.  Still mostly in Day 10- 16 period.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

i think my where is live is actually in the 4 shade...10 miles east is in the 3 lol!

12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10.  Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10.