Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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Looking at the 12Z guidance, if you want to say there are 4 weeks of winter left, toss next week, and hope a specific threat emerges as we approach the end of the next work week as the pattern under goes some changes. Whether it is too little, too late...EURO still has the coastal for next weekend, albeit off the coast. WB EURO for next Sat :
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WB 6Z Fantasy range GEFS. The dreaded AK vortex starts to lift out after Day 10 or so....
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Let’s see if this look is still there in a week. Fingers crossed.
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6z GFS verbatim is meh first 10 days but appears there is more cold air to work starting later in the period. Hopefully, the 10 plus fantasy range will work out this time. We have about a month left to track. Latest big snow storm that I can remember in my lifetime in mid March is 1993. There have been a few nice snow storms up to mid March so chin up and eyes open folks. Good day.
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WB 0z EPS Day 10...0nly 10-20 percent of Members. It will be interesting to see what 12Z holds but not ready to be suckered in again yet.
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WB 0z EPS Day 10.
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WB 0Z EURO at fantasy range Day10.
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WB 6Z GFS 8 days....nice cold high and moisture lurking to the south. Maybe we should not give up yet.
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WB EURO.... late next week, shocker, has fizzled. Only a few EPS members still have it. On a slightly positive note, AO and PNA trending in the right directions towards the end of this month...so while February looking horrible maybe we go into March with a chance. Good day everyone.
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18Z GEFS is the new Dr. No. Will look at EURO at 4:30.
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Perhaps it will fail, but It would appear that late next week may provide us with enough cold air. Now we need the southern stream to cooperate. I will keep watching like everyone else.
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Look, I am not an expert, but these are the best looking snow maps we have had under 10 days on EPS in over a month and it is the only game in town for the next two weeks. At least until 0Z tonight we have a seat in the cheap seats of the snow bowl stadium.
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Alright Bob and PSU tell me why it can't happen....
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Since I am already irritating everyone: I will take the 10-30 % chance depending on where you live for late next week.
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WB 12zEPS....about 11 Members give us snow for late next week. Hug the HECS on 40.....not over yet for late next week.
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WB 12Z EPS....Could someone explain why this mean looks so bad for next Friday? Seems south of the OP.
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Agreed there is no support in 12Z GEFS. Too bad it looks like we punt another week of February.
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Exactly...rather chase a unicorn at under Day 10 then punt the rest of February waiting for a pattern change...the EPS control at OZ got my attention. I know everyone says it is just another ensemble member, but it means the GFS is not completely out to lunch...at least until the 12Z EURO shows it to be partly cloudy and in the 60s late next week.....
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WB 12Z GFS for late next week.....not saying it is correct, but it is something to track under Day 10 that has been pretty consistent with this model. Let's see if we see it on more than the EURO control at 12Z. This will not verify verbatim, but the fact the model keeps trying to develop a storm to our SE needs to be watched.
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OZ EPS Control has a storm on the 21st also to our South.
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12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south.
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There are a couple of EPS members that bring a shot of snow over us and even to our south. So maybe something will pop up before the end of the month. Looking casually but not expecting anything at this point.
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WB EPS at the end of run. At least the SE ridge is breaking down. NAO going to neutral perhaps. Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening. I have not given up on March yet.
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Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February. Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm. But I would not bet the ranch on it.
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Only One Member brings snow late week.
