Weather Will

WB 0Z NAM is weaker and further south compared to 18Z.

WB GFS 7am

WB 1am Mon GFS

NWS take on early next week, One of the recent runs of a major weather model (00z GFS) suggested a substantial amount of accumulating snow across much of the area Sunday night. This type of storm, however, doesn`t seem to fit with the overall weather pattern (fast-moving cold front plowing offshore with a subtropical ridge off the Southeast coast usually aren`t favorable for significant lower elevation snow in the Mid-Atlantic). Several other model simulations since have keyed in on what may be more likely: a brief period of wet snow on the backside of the strong cold front Sunday night. Widespread, prolonged/plowable snow seems very unlikely at the moment given (1) very mild temperatures are expected beforehand, and (2) dry air will chase the storm offshore before precipitation can fall as snow for too long. Given the anticipated warm temperatures beforehand, it will be difficult for snow to stick (if it falls at all). Regardless of any wintry precipitation, there is much higher confidence in gusty winds of 30- 35+ mph and wind chill temperatures dropping into the 20s and teens Sunday night into Monday morning (around 0 for the higher elevations where stronger, damaging wind gusts are possible). The colder weather looks to last about 36 to 48 hours before temperatures begin to moderate once again by the middle of next week.

For the EPS huggers, one more map. It does not have to be bitter cold in January for snow, just cold enough…a little below normal for the five day period ending January 12 may be enough.

WB 12Z GEFS and EPS have the late next week threat (whether the trough will be deep enough to snow for our area remains to be seen.) Look the pattern has changed. (We have actually seen more rain in 2 days this week then we have over the last six weeks.). Now we need to see if we can get some luck. Longer term, GEFS unlike EPS has another trough.

WB 12Z GFS, I will give on up the southern storm for the next storm the following week…

WB 6Z GFS is weaker…

WB 0Z EURO

WB 0Z Can

WB 0Z GEFS v GFS

WB 0Z GFS.

WB 18Z EPS…our 1 in 50 chance for early next week.

WB 18Z GEFS is a lot different from 12Z EPS…so I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks which is correct…

WB 18Z GEFS

18Z WB GEFS, best snow maps of the winter so far, perhaps lighten the mood for at least 6 hours…

WB 12Z EPS is not a complete torch. After the early next week cold front, there will be a warmup, and then another cool down verbatim. Hug 26 for six hours….

Early next week storm looks like the Washington football team on 12Z GEFS.

Light rain/sleet 37.

WB 6Z GFS early next week storm.

WB 12Z EURO

WB 12Z GEFS…I would not get hung up on run to run GFS yet. We are still over a week out of any storm. A chance in January is all you can ask for…

WB 0Z EPS nice depiction of PNA forecast out of record low territory…

WB 6Z GEFS…at least January temps look to be in the cards next week, with some snow chances increasing

First hard rain showers in over a month. Wish it were snow, but we really need the rain.