None of us will do it, but to keep your sanity, one should just not look at the models for five days and then check back in....the head fakes from run to run are crazy...
6Z GEFS thru Day 8....not great but best look in weeks at this range. Will be interesting to see if we finally trend the right direction inside 8 days.
Expectations should be low through the next two weeks...ensembles remain a dud. Forget about AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, EPO, and strat.warm. Say a Hail Mary and hope ET comes home. We need divine intervention.
To keep my expectations in check, I refuse to get head faked by the deterministic models outside 5 days anymore. If their respective ensembles show some support, I keep an eye on it....
WB 12Z EPS keeps hope alive if you can wait 10 plus days. It will be very interesting to see if a distinct threat comes inside 10 days by the end of this upcoming week. One extra ray of hope is the numbering of heavy hits slightly south of us in the extended period. We are not in the Southern edge of all the heavy hits.
Teleconnection charts have not looked good in the long range for a couple of days and nothing has looked good inside 10 days for weeks on the ensembles so there should not be a lot of shock in here.
My big point is that I am not seeing the holy grail of a sustained -AO, -NAO, + PNA, -EPO. and -WPO. I also don’t know what if any factor the SSW could have or if these teleconnection indices somehow reflect the forecasted SSW.
Seems like everyone should temper their expectations for later this month based on the WB 0Z EPS teleconnection charts. AO and PNA in particular heading the wrong way...