Once again, looks like the EURO oversells an event within 24 hours. Note for upcoming winter, GFS is the new Dr. No. (midweek rain is also looking less impressive for most.). It will be interesting to see what we get on the coast.
To my non expert eye, GFS did an above average job with Elsa…from tracking it along the west coast of Florida and generally keeping the heavier rains east of the Bay.
Whichever model shows the least weather around here is usually correct….although other than needed rains for my lawn, you can keep the winds, tornadoes, and flooding out to sea. WB 18Z 3K NAM did shift east from 12Z.