Weather Will

If it goes above 20 percent, will post an updated map. EURO ensembles also in 10-20 percent range.

WB 12Z GEFS thru Christmas.

WB 6Z GEFS through Christmas…like the couple of big hits to our south at this range.

Christmas week miracle still possible….WB 6Z GFS…

You mean verifying like the Cowboys beating Washington this weekend?

WB 6Z GFS much different than overnight run….has our Christmas miracle storm….

Enjoyed reading the analysis above, but don’t see any cold air through Christmas on the latest ensemble runs to suppress any potential storms. Hopefully we will see some cold air in range over the next week or so on the ensembles, I will be turning the hose back on and watering on Saturday. Seems like the news right now is we are in a drought.

Light snow flurries in Brunswick

WB 0Z NAM is a disaster…GN

WB 18Z GFS

WB 18Z NAM. Lock it in!!! I did not see anyone post it.

It probably will be right since I rescheduled something for Wed.

What is the FV3 on TT? Is that the new NAM? It shows some snow on Wed. At 12Z.

The euro is not a short range model I know that but as we get inside 48 hours today, can anyone point to any significant storm where the NAM and EURO had no precipitation???

That SREF run is 9Z so it will be interesting to see the 12Z suite. I mean I would love a 1-3 inch wide spread event…. But I guess I won’t believe it without EURO or NAM support.

WB 6Z… models that show snow that I found

Nothing worthwhile to show…

WB overnight extended GEFS control sees some cold coming…

It’s mid December, not mid March, everyone relax—- at least until the cold spell in late month early January also disappears.

WB 18Z EURO flurries to our north at 7am. Nothing rest of day….I am not waking up for the overnight run.

Sterling NWS take this afternoon… So, overall there is still some uncertainty, but looking like a decent shot for some of the area to see the first snowfall of the winter (east of the mountains of course). Preliminary forecast gives a broad 1-2" along and west of I-95. There is the potential for higher amounts with this storm in areas of mesoscale banding. These are notoriously difficult to predict the exact location of, so at this point, uncertainty is too high to speculate where those higher amounts may be. Stay tuned to the latest forecast for this potential winter storm at weather.gov/lwx/winter.

WB 18Z GFS

WB 18Z 12K. Would take 2 inches in Phase 6 MJO in a heartbeat.

Dr. No is on a roll today. December seasonal update says we wait until April for normal temps.

WB 12K NAM