Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB 0Z ICON storm track stays to our south with both the late week and the Sunday system. Brings a few inches to SW and central VA.
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WB 0Z NBM
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I agree with your assessment that the upcoming weekend can still work (snow) before a true thaw takes place and then maybe we reload one more time. At least it does not look like a shut the blind's pattern to me yet.
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WB's JB just released an updated video. His take is that there will be warmup after the upcoming week, followed by a cool down as we head into the end of the month into March. Reasoning: return of a negative WPO and his belief that the NAO will trend more negative. He cites similarities to 56 and 60.
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I greatly respect your opinion, and appreciate your matter of fact tone and expertise. Thank you. If I understand you correctly, seeing the PNA go to -3 to -4 standard deviation makes it really tough for us to be cold enough for snow. My hope is that some of the members that are less extreme win out over the next week or it takes a little longer to tank that low; or as others pointed out other indices blunt its effect to some degree. We will find out soon enough! Best.
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WB 12Z AI EPS
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If the EURO AI ends up being even close to correct, it truly is the new King. Think we discussed this before, but it never had last year's February failure. Let's see what its EPS says shortly.
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WB 12Z GDPS 10am Sunday compared to 0Z also came way north.
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I don't know what to say about the WB 12Z GFS except with the wild swings it is a work in progress; wait for the GEFS. Below is next Sunday 1pm compared to 6Z.
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FWIW, WB 12Z ICON takes both of the upcoming weekend waves to the south.
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WB 6Z AI EURO
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WB 6Z GEFS
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WB 6Z AI EURO still has the storm but it ticked NW this run.
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6Z GFS has nothing like the EURO AI. The 6Z GFS AI improved but still too warm and weaker than EURO AI.
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WB 0Z AI EPS. Not a lot of support for its steady global AI.
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WB 0Z NBM para. Something to watch over the next week...(east of mountains this is all from upcoming Friday onward.)
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WB 18Z AI EPS was basically a hold.
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Light snow; fresh dusting on deck/lawn.
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Few members all rain and several no storm or whiffs. WB 12Z GEFS.
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WB 12Z GEFS only has two acceptable members out of 30 or 6%. But it is a start!
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Latest Google whatever it is model from WB's JB post. Day 10.
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6Z EPS stops at 6 days. 0Z EPS was pretty meh for next weekend.
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Another comparison: 24 hour precip ending next Sunday 7pm WB 6Z AI EPS compared to 0Z also improved.
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WB 6Z AI EPS compared to 0Z for next Sunday am looks North and stronger to me.
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WB 6Z EPS AI still looks good for next weekend. About 40% of members with a nice hit.
