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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. Being 7 plus days out, we really need to see what the ensembles say at 12Z. We gotta keep up with the technical people in the expert thread since they really know what the hell is going on....
  2. At least this is the third model to have a storm and not a sheered out weak, southern slider.
  3. The 12Z Canadian is not snow for most of us; perfect track rain storm.
  4. The only thing we know about the next system is that No One except the Almighty knows the final outcome yet!!!!
  5. I do appreciate that you are posting a lot of your analysis in both threads. Maybe that is an approach that everyone could take.
  6. General comment: the way non experts like myself learn is for these posts to be integrated into the broader discussion. Having expert analysis is great only if it is easily accessible. The ivory tower approach taken here has a chilling effect on the entire forum.
  7. The EURO AI went from an intense low to nothing in a day. True rug pull. WB 6Z EURO AI compared to 6Z yesterday.
  8. It is a red flag that the EURO AI never got above 30-40% with big hits and EURO is the usual Dr. No. Agree that we are still a few days from knowing....and there is always our March miracle blizzard Hail Mary to pad our totals.
  9. WB 0Z EURO AI and temps are in the 40s now on Sunday so this accumulation is overdone.
  10. Weak sauce. WB 0Z Can. Looks like most of the energy does not come out east. Heads to the upper Midwest.
  11. WB 0Z GFS compared to 18Z GFS: future runs see if the coastal low strengthens faster/ its exact track.
  12. WB AI GFS is still way north. Amazing how different from ICON at Day 7.
  13. WB 0Z ICON storm track stays to our south with both the late week and the Sunday system. Brings a few inches to SW and central VA.
  14. I agree with your assessment that the upcoming weekend can still work (snow) before a true thaw takes place and then maybe we reload one more time. At least it does not look like a shut the blind's pattern to me yet.
  15. WB's JB just released an updated video. His take is that there will be warmup after the upcoming week, followed by a cool down as we head into the end of the month into March. Reasoning: return of a negative WPO and his belief that the NAO will trend more negative. He cites similarities to 56 and 60.
  16. I greatly respect your opinion, and appreciate your matter of fact tone and expertise. Thank you. If I understand you correctly, seeing the PNA go to -3 to -4 standard deviation makes it really tough for us to be cold enough for snow. My hope is that some of the members that are less extreme win out over the next week or it takes a little longer to tank that low; or as others pointed out other indices blunt its effect to some degree. We will find out soon enough! Best.
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