I agree that the NAMs are not good, but they do sometimes show red flags: like the low out west not ejecting east, or a Great Lakes low appearing. No flies in the ointment in this run that I can see at 0Z.
Only a few ensembles show heaviest accumulations north of our area at 18Z. There is some buffer room if a more amped solution occurs, but then the exact track will really matter. (WB 18Z EPS).