Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB 12Z Euro and Ai at 7 pm Sunday. Maybe they meet in the middle....
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12Z ICON is all rain with low heading through western Ohio into PA.
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Maybe I looked at too many maps the past two weeks. Look at the latest NAM highs: are lower than I thought were forecast for this week. WB 12Z 12K NAM for 4pm Tues, Wed and Th.
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Compared to WB 6Z AI EPS at Day 6.
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WB 6Z EPS pressure locations Day 6. Still some spread.
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WB 6Z EURO much further north compared to AI. Track still very uncertain.
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WB 6Z AI stays to the south for the weekend.
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At least the NWS is not saying partly sunny for Sunday anymore! Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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WB 6Z GFS. Low dies over Tenn. Valley this run and starts a slow transfer to the coast.
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WB 6Z NBM para for weekend
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0Z ICON has a low moving through the Ohio Valley bringing a wintry mix quickly changing over to rain this weekend.
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NWS forecast for Sunday shows the uncertainty in the forecast but I don't know how they can word it this way. It's worthless. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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WB 18Z EURO: impressive vortex heading east but I don't know how it is going to be cold enough by the time it gets here unless the track is perfect. Also noticed no 50-50 low this run which makes it even harder.
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Was it that or lack of a phase. Northern stream was dominant? See WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.
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WB 18Z ICON at 120 compared to 12Z
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WB EPS snow prob. Greatly increased between 6Z and 12Z. Blip or new trend TBD. To illustrate, see 6 inch prob. at 12Z compared to 6Z.
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We really need to appreciate that the EURO is really just catching on....compare WB EPS low positions at 12Z compared to 0Z.
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If Dr. No gives us a flush hit, the board will crash!
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Add the WB GDPS Para to the snowy side at 12Z. Low track positions 0Z and 18Z Mon.
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With marginal temps, we will need a near perfect track. Compare low positions for the snowy ICON and GFS compared to the rainy EURO and Can. WB 0Z Mon.
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WB 12Z GEFS: most members still a miss but we hang out for another run!
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Completely agree. See my comments in their thread. Before 12Z most of them with all their technical skill were dismissing the threat. We will see what the experts think now.
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Being 7 plus days out, we really need to see what the ensembles say at 12Z. We gotta keep up with the technical people in the expert thread since they really know what the hell is going on....
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At least this is the third model to have a storm and not a sheered out weak, southern slider.
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The 12Z Canadian is not snow for most of us; perfect track rain storm.
