Weather Will

First storm is interesting for the SE parts of the forum but watch the temps. We saw this last year…red flag when the NAM in range is above freezing for a lot of the event. 12Z Monday NAM v. GFS.

WB 6Z GFS and Oz EURO for Friday storm are both in sync of course when it is not good for us,

Speaking of hope, 18Z GEFS. I will be disappointed if we don’t see flakes by mid January.

There is no model that supports accumulating snow for the DC metro and points N from Monday’s storm. It is December 31, not Mid March. Don’t give up hope yet!!!!

WB 18Z EURO…Even where it is snowing in SE VA it is above freezing.

Show me snow You did not say from what year…fond memories of 2010, a winter not to be repeated in my lifetime.

WB 12Z EPS. I am looking beyond early next week….

WB 12Z GFS…. No luck so far…. But I wish all a heathy and happy 2022!!!

Good Night….

Compared to last night not as good,

WB GFS at hour 54 compared to 0Z last night.

Woo-hoo 1 week of winter WB 18Z GEFS. There are 6-7 of the members I would take through The 15th and call January if not the winter a win.

I agree if you are looking for one snowstorm. Look the overall winter pattern this year stinks, but we need a little luck to get a decent storm that would make most happy. January does not look as warm as December. We are getting some PNA help, MJO support, and going into prime climo…again we don’t need or normally have bitter cold to accompany our snowstorms.

WB latest short range Canadian brings some mood flakes.

There is still a cool period on the weeklies…

WB latest GEFS extended….hopefully a lot to track during January..

Other than the GFS, none of the other models are supporting a snowstorm for our latitude. People should not get their hopes up. Even in SE VA, you can cut the accumulation at least in half due to warm ground and temperatures above freezing for most of the event.

WB 0Z NAM is weaker and further south compared to 18Z.

WB GFS 7am

WB 1am Mon GFS

NWS take on early next week, One of the recent runs of a major weather model (00z GFS) suggested a substantial amount of accumulating snow across much of the area Sunday night. This type of storm, however, doesn`t seem to fit with the overall weather pattern (fast-moving cold front plowing offshore with a subtropical ridge off the Southeast coast usually aren`t favorable for significant lower elevation snow in the Mid-Atlantic). Several other model simulations since have keyed in on what may be more likely: a brief period of wet snow on the backside of the strong cold front Sunday night. Widespread, prolonged/plowable snow seems very unlikely at the moment given (1) very mild temperatures are expected beforehand, and (2) dry air will chase the storm offshore before precipitation can fall as snow for too long. Given the anticipated warm temperatures beforehand, it will be difficult for snow to stick (if it falls at all). Regardless of any wintry precipitation, there is much higher confidence in gusty winds of 30- 35+ mph and wind chill temperatures dropping into the 20s and teens Sunday night into Monday morning (around 0 for the higher elevations where stronger, damaging wind gusts are possible). The colder weather looks to last about 36 to 48 hours before temperatures begin to moderate once again by the middle of next week.

For the EPS huggers, one more map. It does not have to be bitter cold in January for snow, just cold enough…a little below normal for the five day period ending January 12 may be enough.

WB 12Z GEFS and EPS have the late next week threat (whether the trough will be deep enough to snow for our area remains to be seen.) Look the pattern has changed. (We have actually seen more rain in 2 days this week then we have over the last six weeks.). Now we need to see if we can get some luck. Longer term, GEFS unlike EPS has another trough.

WB 12Z GFS, I will give on up the southern storm for the next storm the following week…

WB 6Z GFS is weaker…