Weather Will

Chilly day, seasonably cold evening. Can still get cold enough to snow. Currently 30 degrees.

This year we will need luck to pull a rabbit out of the hat. I think the last week of January into early February there is a shot. WB 6Z GEFS and overnight GEFS extended.

WB 6Z GEFS. I am watching to see if these cold anomalies for late January (Day 13) are still there a week from now or just another mirage….need cold air for snow.

There is 0 doubt in my mind that the base state is warming. I can remember the neighborhood lake in the 70s freezing over on a regular basis. Does not happen anymore. It’s sad, but it is what it is. It just is not helpful to bring it up every time we have a warm stretch or a rain storm in winter in the mid range thread. We will have another blizzard. Whether it is this year or 10 years from now, it will happen. Silver lining this year is the drought busting rains/snows out west. We want snow, but we don’t need it.

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade. There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming. I have lived through three of them so far. Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades. Toughen up people, or move further north.

Agreed…. Including hits to our SOUTH. WB 18Z GEFS

Way too early to throw in the towel for winter. WB Happy Hour GEFS baby improvements….let’s see where we are a week from now. Too far out to get crazy on every run.

The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing but expecting a different result… Let’s see if we get something to track inside five days…nothing in the next five…. Enjoy the chilly holiday weekend!

Remember expectations 10-14 days ago and where we are with the storm this weekend. Hopefully the last 7-10 days of January will deliver. but we are still too far away for any details….HOPEFULLY we will get some of that record cold in Siberia to come over this way….WB EURO Asian cold

Patterns like to repeat in winter…we got a cold shot around Christmas, we will be due for another around peak climo for snow so we now need some luck…

WB OZ EPS looks like it has kicked the can down the road a few days until the last 8-9 days of January with enough cold air to support snow. I guess we will know in a week if it holds or is another mirage….some big hits start to appear in this time frame. Latest WB GEFS extended mean for this timeframe is also showing some potential with enough cold air….have a good day everyone…

I request that managers clean it up in here please….

Can we start a November 2023 thread? 18z GFS is horrible through January. WB long range Canadian has a normal to below normal Thanksgiving with above normal precipitation.

Instead of posting the 1000th 500MB that shows how great it will be in two weeks, I am trying a new approach, my new snow charm arrived today…

WB 6Z EURO…less of a sting for the late week fiasco when even Northern Maine is fringed…hopefully something to track in a couple of weeks. Fingers crossed wave to track in a week or so….

No snow maps worth posting from EPS or Control.

I will have to retire to keep up….:)

101!!!! Oh no….

WB 6Z EPS control….can we get something to trend in the right direction inside 5 days????

I know we have all given up on late week But….WB 18Z EPS is a shift…with a few hits. last picture 12Z.

One glimmer of hope in 12Z GFS fantasy range is that central and eastern Canada much colder after Day 10 this run. That is the thing to track over the next 10 days…how quickly we can get cold enough air back into the east.

Yup, 599 pages of analysis for a cold front….

WB 12Z GFS….primary dies in N. Ohio, and primary coastal pops too little too late for our latitude due to lack of cold air etc…

Looking at the 12Z models for late week….still a cold air issue, but ICON shifted SE with track compared to 0Z.

By the third week of January we should see cold air building in Canada. At least cold enough to snow if not below normal air…. And most of Canada should be snow covered so it can get into the U.S. if we can get the connections (EPO, PNA,) etc. to line up. (0Z EPS first 2 pictures.) Harsh reality is that the latest extended GEFS (which actually did have a signal for the current period) is not showing a signal for another storm until the seven day period ending February 4. Hopefully something will pop up before then but the bottom line is that the CURRENT consensus forecasts of the late January through mid February period are showing that the chances of snow during a portion of our prime climo period are alive and well. Will the advertised pattern deliver? Only God knows…and we will watch and wait.