I think the ensembles have shown the colder pattern very nicely but for storms I don’t think they are any better than just looking at the global models. They flop around like a fish also.
I post a lot of snow maps, both good and bad. Actually I am happy with January. It was cold and I have about 10 inches to date. Would love a big storm by mid March though.
You have to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run…. WB GFS 18Z compared to five runs ago….I won’t run until 18Z Th.