Weather Will

WB 12Z EURO….mood flakes, but the main story will be that temps will feel like they are in the 20s. Indoor SB parties this year.

There are 2 12Z GEFS members that bring snow PD weekend so it is something to watch. Really only game in town after this weekend at the moment.

WB 12Z GFS…. I rest my case…

Attached are 12Z maps that look good for those NW of DC….

WB 12Z ICON says take another trip to the shore.

Someone that tracks the historical data better than I will correct me, but anecdotally, I can tell you that when you get the first big storm it is like it sets the storm path for the winter. I kinda knew where this winter was heading after the foot of snow to our south in early January. It has been their year. They were long overdue…

I am saving this post…. But honestly verbatim the latest EURO weeklies like the second and third week of March. The teleconnections particularly the WPO and EPO also look much better for this period on the GEFS extended as well.

Correct. But when all of the long range guidance looks warm for the 2 week period after President’s Day it is a red flag….you need cold air for snow.

Look at the long range guidance. Someone please show me a glimmer of hope for the last week of February/ First week of March. I could use the good news. Rough week.

Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance. But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March. Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night/ early this am data.

Wrong thread but the snow hole has locked in this year…we need a monster to shake up the pattern. WB 6Z GEFS.

I have not given up on Sunday yet mostly because it may the last flakes we see this winter.

WB 12Z NAM,

Looking at GEFS, EPS, GEFS extended, and the latest Euro Weeklies, we will have a window of opportunity late the upcoming work week/ during the President's Day weekend. After that it looks like we may have to wait to see if we connect with a Hail Mary in the second or third week of March.

WB 0Z assortment. Go Canadians!!!

WB 0Z 12K NAM

Updated 48 is acceptable.

WB 18Z EPS 4 to 6 chances out of 50.

18Z EURO if I squint there are a few flakes on my lawn.

WB 18Z GEFS. More of the same unfortunately.

Agreed.

Yah I guess. At this point, I don’t expect more than a dusting on grassy surfaces on Sunday in my neck of the woods, but I can hug the NAM for another hour….

WB 6z EURO

WB 6Z EURO

WB 0Z EURO…. Perhaps the last time I wake up for it this winter….