Looking to the skies

I have a question for you who are watching the operational models instead of looking at the overall picture. Why are you putting faith in something that changes from run to run-- DAILY, not every other day or so, but sometimes 2-3 times daily? It is plain to see , even for just a geek like me without the credentials that Sunday starts the ball rolling with the cold train that has been advertised. After that with the snow that is going to be put down, the cold just gets deeper and deeper. The models are not picking that up, and common sense says otherwise and the big picture does too.... Also we have History and similar years and patterns to go by for us to understand that a Modili winter means moisture and cold for the East and S East....

Maybe it is just because i want it to be so-- But it seems like the GFS is just too warm in the long range outlook. The temps and the systems don't quite match up, or am i again wish casting?