Interesting read regarding mid week next weeks storm....
Wednesday morning irritant: what is the deal with the ECMWF predicting a major snowstorm in the Northeast March 3-4?
I suspect that the European model suite may be correct. The ensemble members concur with the operational version in creating an interaction between a very moist subtropical jet stream impulse (west of Baja California on the water vapor image) with a shortwave riding along the rim of an Arctic air mass in Canada. Climatology with Miller B type systems (starting near the Virginia Capes) favors a slightly more oceanward track scenario. That could translate to a lot of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.
Do not be swayed by the model warm biases seen in the 0z runs. Low atmospheric thicknesses across Canada (along with the currently entrenched surface cold dome) are telling me to take this situation seriously. It is nothing like the minor mixed precipitation event tomorrow night over extreme N TX, OK, and AR. That feature is the forerunner impulse, setting up a path and a likely heavy rain/thunderstorm situation from parts of East Texas through the Mid-South.
Keep watching the next few sets of numerical model runs, folks. This could get very interesting...... Larry Cosgrove