Snowcrazed71

So a question I have for you. In winters past where we had a great stretch of snow storms and a pattern that produced.... If you look back about 2 or 3 weeks prior to that happening, did anyone know 100% that there was going to be this blitz of Snow happening or were we just getting mixed signals in the models? I'm just curious.

Of course you don't... Lol

So glad I blocked him. He's just gaslighting you.

True... And this has pretty much been expected mid next week. But after that, it's pretty clear that things are changing. And it seems that most models are on board with the transition back to a colder and hopefully, fingers crossed, snowier regime.

Yeah my whole driveway was a sheet of ice. My daughter is of the age now at 12 where she wants to walk the bus stop on own ( I'm perfectly fine with that unless it's raining real hard ). But, this morning she took a few steps outside, turned around and asked me if I could drive her to the bus. But of course I couldn't wait with her. I had to just drop her off. She said she had it from there LOL

By the time we hit February, isn't this La Nina going to be on life support or even heading into a Neutral state?

Hoping you have a quick recovery. I had shoulder surgery on my rotary cuff 4 and 1/2 years ago Midway through winter. So I had to watch from the windows lol

I hate to say it, but both you and tip could both be very hard-headed, and believe so strongly in what you're saying that neither one of you can see each other's points. You're both not wrong.... Just need to agree to disagree. Plus, you both kind of scare me anyway lol. ( Jk )

Yes I remember that storm. And it was crazy how the amounts went through this stripe of the state. I remember I had just about 15" here ... Crazy

So with things getting pushed South a bit more for this Saturday, as far as temps go, does it look like the rain might change to some wintry mix in Southern / Central New England?

Ehh.. we hold out and hope. You and I ( and many others ) know that it takes one change with a storm potential to bring back all the weenies from the grave. Something will give. Patience I guess.

So much Doom and gloom in here. I'm really not too concerned. We've been through this before and will go through it again. All it takes is one great storm to bring the morale back up for everyone. And, as you're all aware, we could get a storm that comes out of nowhere where everything falls right into place. It's rare to get a perfect or even a great season, so if we keep our expectations lower, it will make having a bigger event even more exciting. I still believe it will happen this season ( as I'm holding the mud in my left hand for my face ). Lol

What I'm hoping to see this year is a long duration event. It's been quite sometime since I've seen that.

I just looked outside... Coated up here as well. Wasn't expecting anything tonight?

Not sure on the effects of the La Nina ending and what it means for the next couple of months. Even if it still acts as a weak La Nina, that typically bodes well for us.

Another good write up regarding the disappearing La Nina IT’S TIME TO SAY GOODBYE TO LA NIÑA What this chart is showing is a series of strong westerly wind bursts across the western and central Pacific, and this is exactly the kind of atmospheric signal that I said earlier this season would start working against La Niña and help bring it to an end. Under a typical La Niña background state, the Pacific is dominated by stronger-than-normal easterly trade winds, which drive warm water westward toward Indonesia and allow colder water to upwell across the central and eastern Pacific. That cold-water upwelling is what sustains the La Niña pattern, but this is what I believe is now beginning to change. When we start seeing repeated westerly wind bursts like the ones highlighted here in yellow, the atmosphere essentially begins to flip the script. These westerlies weaken or oppose the trades, allowing warm water to surge eastward across the equatorial Pacific. That process triggers a downwelling Kelvin Wave beneath the surface, carrying a large pool of warmer-than-normal subsurface water toward the central and eastern Pacific. Once that warm pool begins to surface, the cold anomalies tied to La Niña lose their foundation and the pattern starts breaking down, and this is exactly what I’ve been talking about for quite some time. This isn’t an isolated blip or noise in the data. It is a structural shift in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. The more frequent and sustained these westerly bursts become, the harder it is for La Niña to maintain itself, and in my view, the system is now gradually transitioning toward a neutral, or potentially even a weak warm-phase background. I’ve circled the yellow westerly wind bursts on this chart, and I want to be very clear: these winds are now observed and are happening right now. This is not a forecast. These are current, ongoing observations. In my opinion, these westerly winds should be the nail in La Niña’s coffin. I’ll go a step further. I believe that after this week, La Niña will no longer be the dominant background state in the Pacific. What we’re seeing here is one of the classic mechanisms that brings La Niña to an end. The atmosphere is no longer reinforcing it. The atmosphere is now actively working against it, and the Pacific is already responding. There is plenty of winter still ahead, and within a week or so, you’ll begin to see that reflected in the pattern.

It's all good. You are right though... I used to get somewhat defensive in the past. I get you though. Feel better ( just got over a nasty one myself ). Just in time to go back to work after being out since Christmas eve!

Man.. I'm really hoping you make up for it later this month and into February.

Looks like we're on track for the pattern change after this storm.

Ha!! Ok...

Lol.. really? I thought I handled that well.

You can keep trying fool. I like the colors though. Cool map!

What I don't get is there are a select few that like to " feed the fire " and get off on hoping the pattern turns warm. They really get off on twisting the knife. Well.. the good news is most of us know that it's just noise.

Northeast Weather Alert Over the past couple of months we’ve seen the trade winds steadily weaken, and at times even flip to brief westerlies as persistent convection has taken hold across the Pacific. That’s helped kick off a down-welling Kelvin Wave, which is forcing the subsurface warm pool to rise and slide east. In plain terms La Niña is fading right now, and the background state is already trending toward a developing +ENSO pattern as we move forward. With all due respect La Niña is effectively gone, even though it may still technically linger in the ocean for a short time on paper. The atmosphere has already begun shifting away from a true La Niña base state. I’m going to hold steady on my position, because no matter who you are in this field, you can’t ignore what’s right in front of you. I don’t flip back and forth with every single model run, I filter out the noise. Even in a field full of weeds, there are still solid tomatoes growing on the vine… you just have to know where and how to look for them.

Is this guy a joke? He doesn't even speak with an ounce of professionalism.