Snowcrazed71

By the time we hit February, isn't this La Nina going to be on life support or even heading into a Neutral state?

Hoping you have a quick recovery. I had shoulder surgery on my rotary cuff 4 and 1/2 years ago Midway through winter. So I had to watch from the windows lol

I hate to say it, but both you and tip could both be very hard-headed, and believe so strongly in what you're saying that neither one of you can see each other's points. You're both not wrong.... Just need to agree to disagree. Plus, you both kind of scare me anyway lol. ( Jk )

Yes I remember that storm. And it was crazy how the amounts went through this stripe of the state. I remember I had just about 15" here ... Crazy

So with things getting pushed South a bit more for this Saturday, as far as temps go, does it look like the rain might change to some wintry mix in Southern / Central New England?

Ehh.. we hold out and hope. You and I ( and many others ) know that it takes one change with a storm potential to bring back all the weenies from the grave. Something will give. Patience I guess.

So much Doom and gloom in here. I'm really not too concerned. We've been through this before and will go through it again. All it takes is one great storm to bring the morale back up for everyone. And, as you're all aware, we could get a storm that comes out of nowhere where everything falls right into place. It's rare to get a perfect or even a great season, so if we keep our expectations lower, it will make having a bigger event even more exciting. I still believe it will happen this season ( as I'm holding the mud in my left hand for my face ). Lol

What I'm hoping to see this year is a long duration event. It's been quite sometime since I've seen that.

I just looked outside... Coated up here as well. Wasn't expecting anything tonight?

Not sure on the effects of the La Nina ending and what it means for the next couple of months. Even if it still acts as a weak La Nina, that typically bodes well for us.

Another good write up regarding the disappearing La Nina IT’S TIME TO SAY GOODBYE TO LA NIÑA What this chart is showing is a series of strong westerly wind bursts across the western and central Pacific, and this is exactly the kind of atmospheric signal that I said earlier this season would start working against La Niña and help bring it to an end. Under a typical La Niña background state, the Pacific is dominated by stronger-than-normal easterly trade winds, which drive warm water westward toward Indonesia and allow colder water to upwell across the central and eastern Pacific. That cold-water upwelling is what sustains the La Niña pattern, but this is what I believe is now beginning to change. When we start seeing repeated westerly wind bursts like the ones highlighted here in yellow, the atmosphere essentially begins to flip the script. These westerlies weaken or oppose the trades, allowing warm water to surge eastward across the equatorial Pacific. That process triggers a downwelling Kelvin Wave beneath the surface, carrying a large pool of warmer-than-normal subsurface water toward the central and eastern Pacific. Once that warm pool begins to surface, the cold anomalies tied to La Niña lose their foundation and the pattern starts breaking down, and this is exactly what I’ve been talking about for quite some time. This isn’t an isolated blip or noise in the data. It is a structural shift in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. The more frequent and sustained these westerly bursts become, the harder it is for La Niña to maintain itself, and in my view, the system is now gradually transitioning toward a neutral, or potentially even a weak warm-phase background. I’ve circled the yellow westerly wind bursts on this chart, and I want to be very clear: these winds are now observed and are happening right now. This is not a forecast. These are current, ongoing observations. In my opinion, these westerly winds should be the nail in La Niña’s coffin. I’ll go a step further. I believe that after this week, La Niña will no longer be the dominant background state in the Pacific. What we’re seeing here is one of the classic mechanisms that brings La Niña to an end. The atmosphere is no longer reinforcing it. The atmosphere is now actively working against it, and the Pacific is already responding. There is plenty of winter still ahead, and within a week or so, you’ll begin to see that reflected in the pattern.

It's all good. You are right though... I used to get somewhat defensive in the past. I get you though. Feel better ( just got over a nasty one myself ). Just in time to go back to work after being out since Christmas eve!

Man.. I'm really hoping you make up for it later this month and into February.

Looks like we're on track for the pattern change after this storm.

Ha!! Ok...