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SnowDreamer

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Everything posted by SnowDreamer

  1. SnowDreamer
    It's a common feature in our bigguns once the LP really starts dropping.
  2. SnowDreamer
    Look at that comma head tapping moisture out of the gulf. Love to see this! (Control) eta: Heyo! 100th post
  3. SnowDreamer
    Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. ninja'd
  4. SnowDreamer
    I totally agree that you can't have wild model swings in a forecast based on 1 run, but the graphic clearly states *potential* impact. The GEM, GFS, PARA all show ~6" for D.C. and the EURO is back-to-back 12"+. I personally wouldn't classify that potential as low, and I don't think I'm alone in that.
  5. SnowDreamer
    18Z H5 and SLP vs 12Z - I'll save any prognosticating for the more experienced among us 18Z 12Z
  6. SnowDreamer
    This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding
  7. SnowDreamer
    I believe it! I just meant that the models didn't offer much alternative to the forecast. No real choice on which "camp" to pick. Obviously I'm not going to say it'll snow 24" when the storm is 5 days away, but every day we got closer and the big runs just kept coming. This is opposed to most of our storms where we wait for a camp to cave.
  8. SnowDreamer
    I recall the 2016 storm was one of the easiest forecasts I ever made. It was pretty solid from a week out and never really budged, although I think we all expected it to.
  9. SnowDreamer
    correct
  10. SnowDreamer
    I count no less than 16 EPS members that give DCA 10"+ With 5 days until it starts snowing here that's crazy.
  11. SnowDreamer
    Abscond
  12. SnowDreamer
    I can't wait to see the EPS tomorrow morning. edit: holy crud it's 2am... this morning
  13. SnowDreamer
    It's best when it shows us getting screwed. Not sure where that leaves us lol
  14. SnowDreamer
    Frederick County annihilated
  15. SnowDreamer
    I see the forum has solidly transitioned to late-night mode. I'm for it... The Icon looks pretty good to me. Nice thump and closer to some wrap-around snow than 12Z
  16. SnowDreamer
    Temp down to 32 now. Still no snow, but accretion has begun on trees and raised surfaces
  17. SnowDreamer
    all sleet making roads and sidewalks crunchy with zero signs of snow in Newington...
  18. SnowDreamer
    Anybody have obs from the culpeper death band? Looks like 45 dBZ!
  19. SnowDreamer
    I concur, but I thought it was easier to see at higher tilt: 5:18 6:01
  20. SnowDreamer
    Whatever method the site uses to determine precip types is incomplete. Probably uses surface temp obs and upper air data that's not fine enough to detect the "warm layer"
  21. SnowDreamer
    So we can take it out back and give it what for!?!
  22. SnowDreamer
    36/28 down 2 more degrees in the last 30 mins
  23. SnowDreamer
    38/29... down a degree since 4:30 but feeling pretty nervous
  24. SnowDreamer
    I've never heard of this technique... Are you using trig and distance from the dish to estimate here?
  25. SnowDreamer
    Kuchera 12Z vs 6Z shows a big jump south for the 1", 2" lines! Slightly less than 10:1, as expected.
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