SnowDreamer

This is a 6 hour plot...

GEFS also has 27/30 with 2"+. Most in the last 7 runs, maybe all season for all I know.

@imnotarobotI know that your post won't make you popular here, but FWIW I don't think you just delete your account and quit. It's great that you get emotional and like seeing other people being so invested in our snowstorms. It's really what makes this hobby so fun; the investment. Also, it's nice to see another full-time teacher on the boards! As a LONG time lurker and relatively recently active poster, I enjoy AmWx way more now that I participate, even if only a little. It adds to the aforementioned investment. If you're really into weather like I'm sure you are, consider lurking a little less. As for the point you were making and the things that upset you, everybody on this forum is occasionally pissed off by something. Some more than others . Best advice I have seen from the (much) more experienced members is to ignore/block what you don't want to see so that you can enjoy the reason you're here.

As others have said, it does. But I haven't been able to find p-type members like the GEFS sadly. I know they used to be a thing.

At what point do you all start to worry about your plans? I'm supposed to get the poke to end the panic (COVID) on Sunday afternoon. That's an appointment I REALLY don't want to miss. Euro and EPS look fine until at least 18Z Sunday, but GFS starts significantly earlier. I don't want to be white-knuckling it at 1pm Sunday if it's really hammering. Hoping I can scoot in just before the snow really hits.

There's a special place in my nightmares for tempting the reaper like that

I've stayed away and I'm rather proud of myself for that. Vast majority is in mutuals and sector ETFs. I do have some individual biotech stocks that are very boom-bust, though.

Anybody have Ukie graphics? Didn't see much about it earlier...

Wish WxBell had them!

WxBell thermals showing D.C. stays under 0C right down to 925mb except for a little blip at hour 129. Risk it for the biscuit, folks!

850s knocking on DC doorstep @ 126. Really solid hit

D.C. loses 850s at 120, remarkably consistent with 18Z this run for the GFS so far.

abscond!

I saw your profile picture and thought that @Ji was willing to settle. Should have known better!

The 12Z OP has started phasing with that bit of energy by then and 18Z Control hasn't, but I think the control is just a little slower judging from the ULL and the SLP position. I think it might still get to about the same place. Something to watch for in the 00Z run.

It's a common feature in our bigguns once the LP really starts dropping.

Look at that comma head tapping moisture out of the gulf. Love to see this! (Control) eta: Heyo! 100th post

Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. ninja'd

I totally agree that you can't have wild model swings in a forecast based on 1 run, but the graphic clearly states *potential* impact. The GEM, GFS, PARA all show ~6" for D.C. and the EURO is back-to-back 12"+. I personally wouldn't classify that potential as low, and I don't think I'm alone in that.

18Z H5 and SLP vs 12Z - I'll save any prognosticating for the more experienced among us 18Z 12Z

This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding

I believe it! I just meant that the models didn't offer much alternative to the forecast. No real choice on which "camp" to pick. Obviously I'm not going to say it'll snow 24" when the storm is 5 days away, but every day we got closer and the big runs just kept coming. This is opposed to most of our storms where we wait for a camp to cave.

I recall the 2016 storm was one of the easiest forecasts I ever made. It was pretty solid from a week out and never really budged, although I think we all expected it to.

correct

I count no less than 16 EPS members that give DCA 10"+ With 5 days until it starts snowing here that's crazy.