RocketWX

Thanks for starting a new thread! As you mentioned, been a beautiful start to Fall with warm temperatures and welcome rain that is putting a dent in the drought here in SC Kansas. Another wet storm appears likely late Sunday night into Monday with potentially multiple inches of rain! What happens after that is interesting as the first cold air of the season looks possible. I'm even starting to see some fantasy winter storms show up on models. Not concerned with that, but fun to see the season transition. Further, I am liking this wet pattern thus far! If we can keep these systems traversing the plains through winter...could be fun!

A couple things that have stood out to me for a few days with Saturday that separates it a bit from previous systems, is the trough ejection timing and moisture quality/depth. Today's system is really priming the pump for Saturday. More than anything though is the trough ejection timing. You have a jet streak nosing in, intersecting a dryline during peak diurnal heating, rather than late at night or early morning. The big fly in the ointment as it stands now for me is early convection moving up from the south, wiping out the warm sector. Having said that, I do feel this day has the highest ceiling I've seen in some time for OK/KS, based simply on trough timing and moisture quality alone. Seeing as this is on a Saturday and in prime location, whew boy, chaser convergence is sure to be crazy!

Ahh yes, the entire 240hr 12Z Euro looking nice and dry over KS. Along with some tight pressure gradients throughout, I can't wait for the forecast to be centered around elevated fire danger. sigh. This is actually right on time for peak wildfire season but really don't want to break the momentum we've built over the winter busting this drought.

Well I hope everyone has enjoyed the fake spring over the past few weeks. Looks like we'll have another week or so of mild temps before the pattern begins to change. Models are starting to more consistently show a system traversing the plains this coming Saturday/Sunday, 2/10-2/11. Still lots of variability in strength and location, anywhere from Oklahoma to Nebraska. However, I think there is some merit to a fairly decent storm system as the AO index appears to be crashing negative during this timeframe. This may allow for some cold air to work with and a potentially robust system. I haven't looked far beyond this timeframe but if AO remains negative the 2nd half of Feb could lend additional opportunities for winter weather. If anything, maybe some systems to track to keep us occupied.

Well although we've had snow here in SC Kansas this winter, I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit disappointed after missing multiple waves of snow at my house throughout this cold snap. I'm not a fan of bone chilling cold temps with no snow but that's what happened. Win some, lose some I suppose. On to the next.

Well, while it wasn't a blockbuster snow, it certainly provided more excitement than I thought after giving up hope of getting more than a trace to 1" 24 hours prior to. The storm tracked south of guidance and provided another 3-4" snow with lots of wind. It also flash froze all the prior standing water and slush once that that front moved through. I'm happy I got something out of this because I'm not thrilled on trends for late week storm at the moment. I can't complain with two 3" snows within 5 days. Side note: The Chiefs playoff game looks to be brutally cold. Yikes.

I'm not sure. I think blizzard criteria will be met at times but maybe we don't hit the duration needed? The videos from the blizzard in western Kansas have been intense!

Winter Storm Warning has been extended down to Sedgwick County including wichita. 2-4" with wind gusts over 50mph at times in the morning. Schools cancelling quickly now.

Going to very curious to see the final totals for this storm. Everytime I look at trends it seems be ever so slightly deeper and south when it comes to the ULL. 24 hrs ago I thought I may not get an inch here in Wichita and now I could see areas very near Wichita waking up to a decent snow. Combined with the winds could be a huge mess.

Funny you mention this as I was just noticing the same thing and was in the process of posting about it. It's fun to look that the trend of the HRRR & RAP over of the last 12hrs or so. In fact, most recent HRRR now bringing in a healthy band of snow into the ICT area overnight. Will be something to at least monitor now.

I mean that 00Z Euro run...wow. Two storms in the same week with crazy potential.

What a pattern! Received roughly 3" here on the southeast side of Wichita. Borderline freezing temps but still a beautiful snow. As for the Monday storm, agreed with what has been said. Not sure what to think just yet for South Central KS pending track of ULL and when it goes neutral to negative tilt. Right now it seems a bit too late but still could get something out of it. Then yet another system to track next Friday that all models seem to now be picking up on. Haven't had time to dive into models other than a quick look but should be fun to monitor!

Just on the southeast side of Wichita and received roughly 7". One of my favorite snows of all time. Beautiful snow with large flakes and very little wind. Great start to the 2023-2024 winter as the moisture is much appreciated around here.

The end of winter is quickly approaching, and we may actually have our first severe weather threat this Sunday per SPC. I haven't looked in detail at this setup at all yet. Beyond this, we might have one last shot of winter. The AO is currently positive and trending even more positive, but it appears moving into the first few days of March the AO should trend back down to neutral and potentially negative. I think the first week of March could be our last shot to get any winter precip. We'll see how it plays out, but regardless I think there are going to be some pretty hefty systems crossing the middle of the country over the next few weeks. I just hope we can ease this drought in Kansas more than anything before heading into late Spring/Summer.

hmm...ECMWF continuing to hold its ground the second system next week potentially bringing accumulating snow to SC KS. GFS has shown a farther north track. Still too early for any confidence but maybe we'll luck out on one these systems yet. Regardless of precip type, the moisture it appears we'll get from two systems will be welcomed.