jaydreb

Meanwhile in Colorado (near Boulder). . .

Happy Hour GFS NY/NE blizzard is just dispiriting to look at.

EPS at the end of its run, while not ideal, says we can step back from the ledge...for now.

Why does 10:1 say 16” and Kuchera have only like 3” for this storm?

Flying out there on Weds (near Boulder) for the holiday weekend. Should be nice to see the white ground. Chance of light snow this weekend as well.

0z GFS comes close to giving us our 12/5 snow. This time period still bears watching (before we break out the flip flops shorts).

That strong -NAO disappates so quickly. Like within 3 days it is gone and replaced by a seriously +NAO. Figures that this year the seasonals/weeklies will nail it.

Happy Hour GFS has MECS that annihilates NY and NE. I really hope it doesn’t happen like that.

Surprised Helena only gets 38” annually. Seems low.

Ensembles starting to show blue over Greenland. Gonna take us down to DEFCON 4.

EPS breaking down the -NAO by the end of the first week of December but in the process this seems like a pretty good look to my untrained eye.

And setting up for our HECS at the end of the run?

EPS looks similar.

EPS still showing low heights for most of CONUS into December. I assume we would prefer to see blue rather than red just south of the Aleutians though.

EPS has red/orange over Greenland from Hour 144 thru the end of the run. This can’t be a bad thing.

Thanks for writing up your thoughts. The biggest threat is probably simply having bad luck. It’s one thing to try and predict whether we will have a favorable/unfavorable pattern. But trying to guess something as chaotic as snowfall is something else entirely. We could have average snowfall in a bad pattern. We could have below avergae snowfall in a good pattern. Etc, etc. Quite often whether we hit climo depends on whether one particular storm lines up at the right time. Like last year for example. I had about 20” of snow for the season, which is right around climo for me. But half of that came from one storm. Take away that storm and I’m left with a crappy, sub-climo winter. Give me the 12/9 storm (which I missed) and suddenly I have a 30” winter in the same middling pattern. We need to have a workable pattern, but we also need to cash in one or two times when we do and that takes luck. I guess the better the pattern, the more opportunities we have to score and the less likely we are to whiff on all of them.

First flakes in N. Arlington!

Lol. We’re getting into shape for the winter! The run wasn’t that far off from giving something decent though if we set our bar at just seeing flakes from the sky.

Happy hour GFS not going to make many friends south of Jackpotville. Time to open up the Panic Room? Thankfully this is preseason so I’m sure we’ll all react rationally.

Area wide first flakes is a reasonable goal. Anything more is just icing on the cake.

0z CMC also a nice hit for next Tuesday. We’re within 10 days!

0z GFS brings back the snow for next Tuesday.

Oy, an early start to the madness this year. Better hurry and get that Panic Room opened.