jaydreb

Where are you seeing 50% have no symptoms at all? I don’t think that number has been determined yet.

Fauci and Birx say this at every briefing these days. We can begin to lift the guidelines when: 1. It is clear that we are at the bottom of the curve, the health care system has sufficient capacity and there are a small enough amount of cases to do contact tracing; 2. We have the ability to surveillance test and do contact tracing so we can stop any new outbreaks when they pop up; 3. As a supplement to the above, we have better therapeutics so that the damage caused by any outbreak is not as bad. They’ve also said that it’s not going to be like flipping a switch where everything opens at once. We are gradually going to reduce the guidelines and the guidelines won’t necessarily be the same in Baltimore that they are in Montana. Fauci, who I trust, said he is confident we will have the ability to do contact tracing later in the summer. He also said that he is optimistic that we will have a therapeutic option in time for the next flu season. He doesn’t sugarcoat things, so if he’s saying these things I believe it.

Her youngest son got tested because he had respiratory issues (RSV) as a baby and so he qualified for a test at the time. This was several weeks ago when the testing criteria was probably a little stricter and my brother in law really had to argue with the testing center to get the kid the test. He tested positive (and was a little excited to be the first kid in his school district to get it), so the obvious assumption is that the rest of the family had it as well. The loss of smell/taste is a tell tale symptom as well. My brother in law worked with someone whose daughter was sick after returning from Italy and she subsequently tested positive as well. So it’s a pretty open and shut case. She’ll know more tomorrow when she takes the antibody test.

It’s good to hear that she is doing well. My sister (age 42) who lives in NJ had it a few weeks ago. So did her husband and both kids (ages 14 and 12). She experienced it as a bad flu, with cough and fever that lasted a couple of days before she got better. The kids had similar but milder symptoms and recovered a little quicker. Her husband had almost no symptoms at all except for a loss of taste and smell. My sister also lost her taste and smell but it has since returned. She is donating plasma and antibodies tomorrow and getting an antibody test.

Understood. I’m definitely not judging. I probably do 50% of what you have on your list. I am going crazy with the handwashing though. Probably doesn’t matter because my kids spend all day on the couch chewing their nails and picking their noses.

Wow. Just curious, do you have underlying health conditions or are you immunocompromised such that you are at high risk for serious illness?

Yes, every time you bring something in or have something delivered you are increasing your risk somewhat. You’re also taking arguably a greater risk by going out to the grocery store. Obviously the more you bring food in, the greater your risk. But (personally), in an effort to acheive some degree of normalcy, I don’t think that getting the occasional delivery or take out (let’s say a few times a month) is taking on a huge amount of risk, especially if precautions are taken. But everyone’s risk tolerance is different.

Surface transmission is real but I haven’t seen anything suggesting that the risk of getting the virus from a take out bag is “extremely high.” Is it possible? Yes. That’s why you wash your hands and take other precautions. NOTE: I don’t really practice what I preach. I have allowed pizza delivery exactly once and even then had a full military operation to make sure there was no contamination. But I think I am just letting fear overcome logic.

Yes, you are right that there is a risk of surface transmission but it is extremely low and can be almost totally mitigated by disposing of the packaging and washing your hands before touching your face. Look at these guys! Not even gloves! If they’re OK with it, we can be too. Personal choice of course.

There may have been a sick cook who got others sick but there is no evidence that the virus is transmitted through food. People probably got sick from contact with him/her personally. If you are afraid of the food, just microwave it for a minute.

Your fear is perfectly relatable because we are still in the middle of the pandemic. The numbers are still going up, etc. But you (and many others) may feel differently in (hopefully) a few months when there are only a handful of new cases in the entire state. At some point your chances of catching the virus will become so low that you and others may be willing to accept a bit of risk so that you can begin to live your lives again. And if you couple the reduced odds of catching the virus with better and better therapeutic options and you begin to see a way that we can slowly return to some form of normalcy (at least for people who are not at higher risk of severe illness). It’s not going to happen all at once, and until we have a vaccine it’s not going to be 100% like it was pre-virus, but we will get there.

Crowded? Decent supply of food?

Sorry, I didn’t see where he lived. They are closed for the rest of the year in Virginia. I think chances are slim to none that Maryland returns to school but I have no particlar insight into it.

That plan worked for us for a few weeks but it’s become impossible to get a grocery delivery slot anymore.

What do you mean? Schools are not reopening until fall.

Thanks. I was thinking more of crowds than stocking. I guess it just depends on the place.

For those of you who have been to grocery stores, what time do you recommend? Our local store is open 6am-10pm.

Depends on what you want to do. They may loosen the stay at home order somewhat but still require social distancing.

I hope its right. IMHE model down another 25% for overall US mortality (now at 60,000). Maryland appears way down as well, with only 1100 total deaths predicted through August 4. Virginia with only 900. It’s just a model, but it is showing the impact of our social distancing efforts. I’m sure some will misinterpret it as showing that we overreacted, but I think it just shows that the measures are effective. We still have to keep them up and then carefully manage the reopening. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Pretty wild if it happens. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona

Everyone does it. From the doctors and politicians it’s usually “thanks for that question” or “good question.” Sometimes it’s “that’s a nasty question.”

I hope so too. One major caveat is that the model assumes complete social distancing through the end of May.

Fairly dramatic shift on the model being used by the government, incorporating more recent data, with overall deaths in the US decreasing and peak dates for many states (including MD ans VA) moved up by nearly a month. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I don’t think everything will be shutdown, but I also don’t think we are going to be seeing things like MLB, college football and the NFL with live audiences, if at all. I hope I’m wrong.

As long as the virus is out there, the economy is going to suffer. We could open everyone’s doors next month and tell them that they are free to reopen everything but do you think people are going to the movies, traveling on planes, eating at crowded restaurants, etc.? There is no economic recovery until we have a vaccine or an effective therapeutic.