jaydreb

What you are seeing is a decline in cases in the primary hotbed of NYC, but a slow plateauing or slow increase in many other areas. Since we have been mitigating you hopefully shouldn’t see the dramatic spike that we saw in NYC. In order to reach herd immunity, we would need somewhere between 60% and 80% of the population to have antibodies. We are nowhere near that in New York or anywhere else in the country. The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions. All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it. The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups. Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms. Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather. People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places. Take your son to the doctor. Maybe just one parent goes. Wear a mask if possible. Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can. You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swiss-children-under-10-allowed-to-hug-grandparents-as-they-do-not-transmit-covid-19-11980568

I think all the talk about opening up soon could have people getting complacent.

Thanks. I think the disconnect was that I was talking about the first one also, but someone replied referring to “medical twitter.” It’s all good now, thanks.

Thanks for the clarification. Still seems like good news.

Very possible. Didn’t Fauci report the positive results of the NIAID study as being “very important?”

I trust Dr. Fauci over medical Twitter. Last time I checked he was an expert.

A 25% reduction in mortality is very good news indeed.

That’s what I’m talking about. The NIAID study. I said it was possibly good news.

My understanding is that the study compared 800 patients to placebo. I’m not a scientist but if NIH says the results are positive (which hasn’t happened yet), that’s good enough for me.

I’m not sure how medical Twitter knows what to think considering the results have not been made public yet. Even the tweet you quote says that this is “the real study to watch.”

Some potential good news on the therapeutic front. It is expected that Fauci/NIH will discuss the results at today’s briefing. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/gilead-maker-of-remdesivir-says-its-aware-of-positive-data-from-coronavirus-treatment-study/ar-BB13mQLe

Antibody testing doesn’t tell you whether you are a silent carrier. It tells you whether or not you may have had the coronavirus and subsequently developed antibodies.

I don’t know. Seems like a pretty big difference just between 1850 and present day. A typical 40 year old back then could expect to make it to around 70. Present day would be around 80. That’s around a 15% increase.

Not likely IMO. If schools are open, there will probably be many changes including reduced class sizes, more physical distancing, less traffic in the halls, wearing of masks, lunch in the classrooms instead of cafeteria, etc.

I think barbers/hairdressers could just allow one client at a time in the shop, and the worker and customer could wear masks. Restaurants would have more people - workers and customers. I agree there should be enough spacing between the phases to allow for processing whether they are causing an increase in cases.

Yes but doesn’t mean they gave it to each other on the beach. The bigger issue is sharing hotel rooms, bars, restaurants, etc. I assume these are mostly residents hanging out on the beach with their families.

It probably looks worse than it actually is. If people keep their distance from one another the risk of transmission is fairly low. The other issue, however, is that all those people are touching more gas pumps, parking meters, etc.

Who are they testing? 47,000 people presented with flu like symptoms? Or are they expanding the testing criteria?

Correct.

More new cases could just be a result of more widespread testing. We probably should be tracking deaths and new hospitalizations.

They got the results back on the same day as the test?

Yep. I may have mentioned that my sister and her family had confirmed cases of coronavirus back in March and have since recovered. My sister and her husband volunteered to donate plasma to Mt. Sinai hospital as part of their antibody treatment study. The first step in that process was an antibody test. They both tested positive for antibodies. My sister’s antibody titer level was 80. Her husbands was 960! Since the threshold for donating is 320, only he is eligible to donate. The interesting thing is that he barely had any symptoms other than loss of taste/smell My sister was pretty sick for a few days, but still had a pretty mild case all things considered My sister of course has not been able to get any answers as to whether she might have immunity, whether her antibody levels could increase, whether she has any less immunity than her husband, etc. The test results also had the disclaimer you mentioned about other coronaviruses. In this case we know they had the coronavirus because of a positive coronavirus test.

Those are actually major caveats. We don’t know how reliable these antibody tests are. It’s possible that they are picking up on antibodies from other coronaviruses. We also don’t know whether the presence of antibodies (and what level of antobodies) confers immunity and, if so, for how long.