The Xmas storm looking more progressive on the GFS through 114 FWIW (probably nothing).
EDIT: Downpours on xmas eve followed by some windblown flakes on xmas.
I can’t remember the modeling leading up to it, but the January 2019 storm that ended up bullseyeing DC metro area could be another example of a positive bust for that area (and maybe a negative bust for other areas).
A fair number of the 12z GEFS members show decent snowfall on xmas eve/xmas morning. Hard to capture it all in a single panel because of timing differences, but you can sort of see it here.
Does GFS ever even turn us to plain rain on the western side of the beltway? Haven’t looked at the soundings but from precip type maps looks like mostly frozen (sleet)?