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jaydreb

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Everything posted by jaydreb

  1. jaydreb
    The GFS is yeeesh. It’s just an op run at range though. Let’s wait for ensembles and Euro before freaking out.
  2. jaydreb
    Not as good as EPS but most members have the storm in one form or another.
  3. jaydreb
    It’s still rolling in, but GEFS looks pretty good for this far out.
  4. jaydreb
    FWIW.
  5. jaydreb
    Euro is a thing of beauty. Looked like it was going to cut but the lp just got forced under us. EDIT: Still snowing when the run ends with lp in west va. Would it transfer to coast and keep snowing?
  6. jaydreb
    Looks like 12z Euro took away our light snow showers on Thursday/Friday.
  7. jaydreb
    GFS suppressing everything.
  8. jaydreb
    Don’t worry, the next wave is a cutter.
  9. jaydreb
    Looks like the low is forced just under us on this run.
  10. jaydreb
    Slightly less ridging on 18z than 12z brings the precip south. Still not cold enough to make a difference.
  11. jaydreb
    1. Does the model show snow? If yes, go to 2. If no, go to 3. 2. Is the model the Euro? If yes, go to 4. If no, go to 5. 3. It’s right. 4. Is the model supported by 90% of ensembles and at least 2 other major models? If yes, go to 6. If no, go to 7. 5. It’s wrong. 6. Is the model within 48 hours of the event? If yes, go to 8. If no, go to 9. 7. It’s wrong. 8. It’s wrong. 9. It’s wrong.
  12. jaydreb
    So in other words just a normal day in the mid-Atlantic forum?
  13. jaydreb
    CMC ends up looking like GFS for next Thursday/Fri but warmer.
  14. jaydreb
    EPS has AN temps until Day 10. Then it gets a little colder.
  15. jaydreb
    Yeah. Great to see that the -NAO continues for the foreseeable future.
  16. jaydreb
    No. The mean is the average of all the members. The control is a member that has the same input as the op but run at a lower resolution.
  17. jaydreb
  18. jaydreb
    Someone smart can interpret but this looks like a nice panel to me.
  19. jaydreb
    True, but just 24 hours ago the GEFS mean was 4”. Not saying things will work out but as you know these snow means can fluctuate.
  20. jaydreb
    GFS is just a little cold at the end of its run.
  21. jaydreb
    To be clear, I don’t mean good in terms of snow. Just good in terms of keeping the general pattern it has been showing.
  22. jaydreb
    GEFS looks OK. At least through 198.
  23. jaydreb
    Not sure I’ve seen many storms move the way the GFS depicts from 324-336.
  24. jaydreb
  25. jaydreb
    Yeah. We had tons of precip for the mid-December storm, xmas eve gullywasher and New Year’s Day rainer. Temps were lacking for all three.
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